2194 County Road 5017 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 186 Days on market

Built 2018 0.44 ac lot $78/sqft · 7% above area Est $89k · 7% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable country living in the growing Plum Grove area! This 2018-home 3 bed, 2 bath gem sits on a spacious 0.44-acre lot with plenty of room for parking, expansion, or outdoor projects. Inside, enjoy an open layout, large kitchen with walk-in pantry, and a private primary suite with walk-in closet. Perfect for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for peaceful living with no HOA and low taxes. Plum Grove is quickly developing, offering that “buy now, grow later” opportunity—country charm with easy access to FM 1010, 59, and major Houston corridors. Move-in ready, unrestricted potential! "AS IS SALE"

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Spacious lot
• Open layout

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• LARGE KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $684 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.88%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $89,076
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 6.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2194 County Road 5017	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	0mo	$95,000	$78	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $29,866
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $89,129
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,644 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $921/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $684

Break-even live

Break-even rent $778

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1964 Road 5714 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	43d	1	0.82mi
1964 Road 5714 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,575	$1.40	7d	1	0.82mi
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $95,000 Pending 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 186 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 185 DOM
4. 2026-05-10
   historical Active Under Contract 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   Affordable country living in the growing Plum Grove area! This 2018-home 3 bed, 2 bath gem sits on a spacious 0.44-acre lot with plenty of room for parking, expansion, or outdoor projects. Inside, enjoy an open layout, large kitchen with walk-in pantry, and a private primary suite with walk-in closet. Perfect for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for peaceful living with no HOA and low taxes. Plum Grove is quickly developing, offering that “buy now, grow later” opportunity—country charm with easy access to FM 1010, 59, and major Houston corridors. Move-in ready, unrestricted potential! "AS IS SALE"

5. 2025-11-18
   listed $95,000 Active 647-char remark

   Show marketing remark (647 chars)

   Affordable country living in the growing Plum Grove area! This 2018-home 3 bed, 2 bath gem sits on a spacious 0.44-acre lot with plenty of room for parking, expansion, or outdoor projects. Inside, enjoy an open layout, large kitchen with walk-in pantry, and a private primary suite with walk-in closet. Perfect for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for peaceful living with no HOA and low taxes. Plum Grove is quickly developing, offering that “buy now, grow later” opportunity—country charm with easy access to FM 1010, 59, and major Houston corridors. Move-in ready, unrestricted potential! "AS IS SALE"

6. 2025-08-31
   historical
7. 2025-07-24
   price $119,900
8. 2025-05-28
   listed $129,900 Active
9. 2025-05-28
   historical
10. 2025-03-27
    listed $139,000 Active
11. 2025-03-27
    historical
12. 2025-03-05
    price $149,900
13. 2025-02-20
    listed $155,000 Active
14. 2025-02-20
    historical
15. 2025-02-17
    listed $155,000 Active
16. 2024-12-13
    historical $1,650
17. 2024-12-07
    listed $1,650
18. 2024-12-07
    historical
19. 2023-09-03
    listed
20. 2023-08-30
    historical
21. 2022-08-16
    soldstatus
22. 2022-06-02
    price $105,000
23. 2018-12-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$818/yr (+$68/mo · 88.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$921
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $7,093
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,702
• After-tax cash flow: $6,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Rental Removed $1,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-12-07 Listed for Rent $1,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-12-07 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2023-09-03 Listed for Rent — BUILDIUM
• 2023-08-30 Rental Removed — BUILDIUM
• 2022-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-02 Price Changed $105,000 Fizber.com
• 2018-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $921 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.