Oak Hill Plan · Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$875,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,502 sqft · SingleFamily · 235 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Schools +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Cash flow +0.5/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This traditional floor plan has room for everything. A large foyer makes a great first impression and opens to a study with the option for French doors. The open floor plan is perfect for entertaining or family gatherings with the great room flowing seamlessly into the kitchen and dining area with the option to add even more living space with a deck, screened porch or Sunroom. The kitchen has plenty of storage with a working island and large walk-in pantry. The great room enjoys an abundance of natural light from three large windows features a gas burning fireplace with granite surround. A powder room and mudroom with a reach-in closet and optional bench complete the main floor. Upstairs you'll find the spacious primary suite featuring a large walk-in closet and primary bath boasting an extended double vanity with quartz countertops. The laundry room is conveniently located upstairs along with two bedroom sharing a jack and jill bath and an additional bedroom suite with its own bathroom.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Granite surround
• Large foyer

Tags

• LARGE FOYER
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WORKING ISLAND
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY
• GAS BURNING FIREPLACE
• GRANITE SURROUND

🏗️ New construction. The $875,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $1,117,770.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $876k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-58k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $413k (52.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $362k (58.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $362k (58.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 1.8% in Saratoga Springs — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Avenue Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 393 students, 21% FRL); Maple Avenue Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #187 of 729 statewide, top 26%, 1,392 students, 27% FRL); Saratoga Springs High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,947 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 561 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($771k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $361,583 (58.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.32% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.67%
• DSCR: 0.17
• GRM: 25.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,117,770
• List price: $875,900
• Delta: -21.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
295 Jefferson St	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,400 (-4%)	1mo	$900,000	$375	76
1 Cleveland Ave	0.09mi	4/3.5	2,333 (-7%)	11mo	$995,000	$426	75
22 Doten Ave	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,484 (-1%)	20mo	$885,000	$356	65
5 Richard Ave	0.22mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,200 (-12%)	5mo	$970,000	$441	61
37 Northway Ct	0.19mi	4/2.0	2,258 (-10%)	16mo	$620,000	$275	56
16 Nelson Ave	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,376 (-5%)	5mo	$785,000	$330	54
32 Chloe's Way	0.06mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,816 (+12%)	21mo	$1,560,000	$554	53
313 Jefferson St	0.21mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,858 (+14%)	17mo	$1,225,000	$429	47
57 Thoroughbred Dr	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (-12%)	8mo	$775,000	$351	44
83 Monroe St	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,750 (+10%)	19mo	$1,321,000	$480	39
18 Furlong St	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,232 (-11%)	20mo	$669,000	$300	37
20 Furlong St	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,215 (-12%)	20mo	$767,900	$347	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -49.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-472,018
• Equity at exit: $166,663

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.31×
• Total profit: $-723,077
• Equity at exit: $96,644

Cash invested: $312,976 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.0 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $1,012,900 ($419/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 12866

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 561
• Price-to-rent: 20.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,616 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,862
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,397 /mo · $16,767/yr
• Insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$759
• Net cashflow: $-4,868

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,778

Max offer price $413,341

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,096	-5% $-4,482	+0% $-4,868	+5% $-5,254	+10% $-5,641
Rent	-10% $-5,154	-5% $-5,011	+0% $-4,868	+5% $-4,725	+10% $-4,583
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,305	-0.5pp $-4,584	base $-4,868	+0.5pp $-5,158	+1.0pp $-5,452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $279,442
• Closing costs: $33,533
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Maria Ln Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	3.5	1968	$45,000	$22.87	93d	1	0.12mi
8 Furlong St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.5	2242	$1,000	$0.45	93d	1	0.46mi
21 Park Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	3.0	2500	$3,250	$1.30	93d	1	1.00mi
21 Park Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	3.0	2500	$3,250	$1.30	16d	1	1.00mi
77 White St Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	2.5	2088	$4,950	$2.37	72d	1	1.04mi
34 Hyde St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.5	2283	$45,000	$19.71	93d	1	1.33mi
10 Marion Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$4,500	$2.50	72d	1	1.42mi
194 Grand Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	2.5	2200	$28,000	$12.73	93d	1	1.44mi
18 C Cherry St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	3.5	3414	$40,000	$11.72	72d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $875,900 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $875,900 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $875,900 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $875,900 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $875,900 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $875,900 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $875,900 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $875,900 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $875,900 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $875,900 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $875,900 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $875,900 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $875,900 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $875,900 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $875,900 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $875,900 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $875,900 Active 211 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $875,900 Active 210 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $875,900 Active 209 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $875,900 Active 208 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $875,900 Active 207 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $870,900 Active 206 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $870,900 Active 205 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $870,900 Active 203 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $870,900 Active 202 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $870,900 Active 201 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $870,900 Active 200 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $870,900 Active 199 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $870,900 Active 198 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $870,900 Active 197 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $870,900 Active 196 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $870,900 Active 195 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $870,900 Active 194 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $870,900 Active 193 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $870,900 Active 192 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $870,900 Active 190 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $870,900 Active 188 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $870,900 Active 187 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $870,900 Active 184 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $870,900 Active 183 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $870,900 Active 182 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $870,900 Active 181 DOM
43. 2026-06-14
    days on market $870,900 Active 179 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $870,900 Active 178 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $870,900 Active 176 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $870,900 Active 175 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $870,900 Active 174 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $870,900 Active 173 DOM
49. 2026-06-05
    days on market $870,900 Active 170 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $870,900 Active 169 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$62,612
• − Property taxes: −$16,767
• − Insurance: −$5,589
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,471
• − Management: −$3,471
• − Depreciation: −$32,517
• Taxable loss: −$81,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19,449
• After-tax cash flow: $-38,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,510–$37,530 screening

This home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a traditional floor plan with ample space and natural light, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can increase the home's appeal to buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing the bathrooms can make the home more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can attract tenants. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can attract both buyers and tenants by showcasing the home's best features. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

B Composite school gradezoned avg 78/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Avenue Elementary School A+ NY #138/2,108 Nat'l #849/41,679 Middle Maple Avenue Middle School B NY #187/729 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Saratoga Springs High School A+ NY #83/1,100 Nat'l #116/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saratoga Springs City SD
• NCES district ID: 3625770
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,864
• Composite: 60.83/100
• National rank: #818
• State rank: #138 of 590 in NY

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saratoga Springs, NY
• County: Saratoga County · 238,889 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,057
• Household income: $101,901
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.78%
• Current HPI: 382.7429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.15%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $870,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $865,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $860,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Listed $857,900 Zillow