78 Winslow Ave · Buffalo, NY 14208

$149,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,617 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1928 3,240 sqft lot $92/sqft · 13% below area Est $170k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single family home with 5 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Large side lot. Offers will be reviewed on Monday, April 13, 2026 at 5:00pm.

Key facts

• Large side lot
• 3,240 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE SIDE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,574/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 723% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $149k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.87%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,403
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -12.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Laurel St	0.59mi	5/1.0	1,544 (-4%)	1mo	$163,000	$106	64
76 Dupont St	0.17mi	5/3.0	1,746 (+8%)	10mo	$200,500	$115	62
463 E Ferry St Unit S	0.17mi	5/1.0	1,782 (+10%)	16mo	$94,000	$53	62
30 Brooklyn St	0.12mi	6/1.0 (+1)	1,486 (-8%)	19mo	$180,000	$121	60
273 Purdy St	0.45mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-6%)	6mo	$90,000	$59	55
59 Landon St	0.25mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,424 (-12%)	14mo	$76,500	$54	52
32 Roehrer Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,661 (+3%)	15mo	$60,000	$36	47
15 Blaine Ave	0.73mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,615 (-0%)	19mo	$290,000	$180	45
291 Northampton St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,806 (+12%)	3mo	$255,000	$141	44
84 Hedley Pl	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (+14%)	22mo	$250,000	$136	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $39,816
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $117,137
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14208

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $1,004

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	14d	1	0.33mi
518 Wilson St Buffalo, NY	5.0	1.5	1848	$1,500	$0.81	23d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    listed $149,000 Active 124-char remark

    Show marketing remark (124 chars)

    Single family home with 5 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. Large side lot. Offers will be reviewed on Monday, April 13, 2026 at 5:00pm.

16. 2025-10-24
    soldstatus $82,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,471
• − Management: −$2,471
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $10,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,468
• After-tax cash flow: $9,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,572
• Household income: $48,476
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 723.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 15% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Hispanic 0%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.37%
• Current HPI: 459.2084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+80.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $149,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $179 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.