1672 Elk Run Dr · Fayetteville, NC 28312

$321,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,679 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 10,018 sqft lot Est $314k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Smith Douglas Homes proudly presents the Bradley B at Lexington Woods South in Fayetteville. THIS HOME IS UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND WILL BE READY IN JUNE. * * * REPRESENTATIONAL PHOTOS-HOUSE UNDER CONSTRUCTION * * * * Discover the ease of single-level living in this thoughtfully designed ranch home, where comfort and style come together effortlessly. Nestled on a spacious, tree-lined . 23-acre homesite, this inviting one-level layout offers the perfect balance of comfort, privacy, and connection. At the center of the home, the open-concept living space is designed for real life, whether you're hosting friends or enjoying a quiet evening in. The kitchen shines with a large island, gr

Key facts

• Tree-lined homesite
• Large island
• Single-level living

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• TREE-LINED HOMESITE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• LARGE ISLAND
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $322k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-586 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (26.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 53% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,500 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.92%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,973
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1672 Elk Run Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,679 (0%)	0mo	$316,900	$189	100
1656 Elk Run Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,679 (0%)	2mo	$315,240	$188	98
1640 Elk Run Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,679 (0%)	4mo	$297,500	$177	97
1621 Elk Run Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,679 (0%)	9mo	$320,525	$191	91
1628 Elk Run Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,803 (+7%)	9mo	$322,860	$179	80
1594 Old Barn Rd NE	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,679 (0%)	12mo	$306,210	$182	78
1618 Old Barn Rd	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,679 (0%)	19mo	$327,000	$195	70
1918 Fireside Dr E #1	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,803 (+7%)	13mo	$306,890	$170	69
1594 Old Barn Rd	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,770 (+5%)	13mo	$306,210	$173	63
1593 Old Barn Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,801 (+7%)	15mo	$337,375	$187	60
1918 Fireside Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,801 (+7%)	13mo	$306,890	$170	59
1598 Old Barn Rd	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (+7%)	16mo	$343,645	$191	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $138,085
• Equity at exit: $289,993

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $436,170
• Equity at exit: $625,381

Cash invested: $90,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28312

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,688
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$402 /mo · $4,828/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,937

Max offer price $237,107

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-364	-5% $-475	+0% $-586	+5% $-697	+10% $-808
Rent	-10% $-759	-5% $-673	+0% $-586	+5% $-499	+10% $-413
Rate	-1.0pp $-424	-0.5pp $-504	base $-586	+0.5pp $-669	+1.0pp $-754

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,475
• Closing costs: $9,657
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1303 Middle Rd Eastover, NC	3.0	2.5	1935	$2,195	$1.13	24d	1	0.74mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $321,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,031
• − Property taxes: −$4,828
• − Insurance: −$2,407
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,364
• Taxable loss: −$12,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,085
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• City population: 226,118
• Population (ZIP): 19,889

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.75%
• Current HPI: 306.7749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $321,900 TMLS