135 Cowhide Cir · Middle River, MD 21220

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 112 Days on market

Built 1986 $95/sqft · 50% above area Est $73k · 50% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 135 Cowhide Circle! This home has been completely renovated and is move in ready. Three bedrooms and 2 baths with new flooring, new kitchen and baths. Spacious lot and driveway. Home has covered entry and a shed for storage.

Key facts

• Shed for storage
• New kitchen
• New flooring

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN
• COVERED ENTRY
• SHED FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $945 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 4.1% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $110k implies a 450% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $100,100 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.83%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,446
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 49.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $37,794
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $92,435
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $945

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 Alberge Ln Middle River, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,052	$2.21	2d	8	0.87mi
3736 White Pine Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	741	$1,310	$1.77	2d	21	0.89mi
11550 Crossroads Cir Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,849	$3.19	2d	15	1.05mi
6221 Greenleigh Ave Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,957	$2.79	2d	16	1.18mi
3924 Cutty Sark Rd Middle River, MD	2.0	1.5	1180	$1,699	$1.44	24d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $110,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 96 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 95 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 94 DOM
14. 2026-02-26
    listed $110,000 Active 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Welcome to 135 Cowhide Circle! This home has been completely renovated and is move in ready. Three bedrooms and 2 baths with new flooring, new kitchen and baths. Spacious lot and driveway. Home has covered entry and a shed for storage.

15. 2025-07-28
    historical
16. 2025-06-23
    price $49,999
17. 2025-06-14
    listed $59,999 Active
18. 2010-02-05
    price $20,000
19. 2010-01-08
    soldstatus $20,000 Sold
20. 2010-01-08
    soldstatus $20,000
21. 2009-12-17
    listed $9,900 Active
22. 2009-12-17
    listed $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $10,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,448
• After-tax cash flow: $8,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+450.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $110,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $49,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-14 Listed $59,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-02-05 Price Changed $20,000 MRIS
• 2010-01-08 Sold (MLS) $20,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-01-08 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MRIS
• 2009-12-17 Listed $9,900 MRIS
• 2009-12-17 Listed $20,000 BRIGHT MLS