9029 Camp Bethel Rd · Wise, VA 24293

$40,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1975 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CALLING ALL INVESTORS! This house is in a GREAT location in Wise, and with a metal roof and electrical system that are both only two years old, all you need is some elbow grease to turn this into a very nice place! Information taken from seller and/or public records, subject to E & O. Property is being sold as-is, where-is. No showings without an appointment.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 56 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $660 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.1% vs local median 5.1% in Wise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#99 in VA, #3,153 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wise County Public School District (town): math 74% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #11 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.75%
• DSCR: 4.15
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $35,582
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.60×
• Total profit: $85,159
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24293

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $337/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $660

Break-even live

Break-even rent $322

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-02
   listed $40,000 Active 365-char remark

   Show marketing remark (365 chars)

   CALLING ALL INVESTORS! This house is in a GREAT location in Wise, and with a metal roof and electrical system that are both only two years old, all you need is some elbow grease to turn this into a very nice place! Information taken from seller and/or public records, subject to E & O. Property is being sold as-is, where-is. No showings without an appointment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $337 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $337 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$337
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,112
• − Management: −$1,112
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $7,732
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,856
• After-tax cash flow: $6,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wise County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104080
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $35,624
• Composite: 63.37/100
• National rank: #625
• State rank: #11 of 131 in VA

Livability — Wise

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3153

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,622

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,714 people
• By 2030: 33,742 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 29,870 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 26,233 · -26.5%
• By 2075: 18,296 · -48.8%
• By 2100: 12,147 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.7pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.0 2012: R+48.8 2008: R+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.49%
• Current HPI: 153.7377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $40,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $337 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.