107 Alfa Dr · Whitney, TX 76692

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $86k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The home is in Whitney Resorts which is a gated 55+ retirement community. The community amenities include a beautiful pool, a community center for card games, dominoes, bingo and other activities, the event center is where we have sports games watching parties, playing cornhole, potluck lunches on Sundays, and our once or twice a month lunch/dinners are available for a minimal price and is prepared by our dedicated volunteers and you are welcome to participate in all of these and enjoy your retirement living to the fullest. Whitney Resorts has over 300 acres of land in our clean, quiet, gated community. The park offers a beautiful large dog park complete with dog washing sink with ramp. We

Key facts

• Gated community
• Community center
• Event center

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• EVENT CENTER
• LARGE DOG PARK
• DOG WASHING SINK
• OVER 300 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($991 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.4% in Whitney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#282 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Whitney ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 644 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.73%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,760
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 Lakeview Ave	0.12mi	1/1.0	560 (-12%)	14mo	$75,000	$134	62
255 Golf Course Dr	0.07mi	1/1.0	560 (-12%)	17mo	$39,500	$71	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $5,392
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $27,310
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76692

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $995/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $642

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $297	+0% $275	+5% $254	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $197	-5% $236	+0% $275	+5% $314	+10% $354
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $294	base $275	+0.5pp $256	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    listed $75,000 Active
18. 2012-03-04
    soldstatus
19. 2004-05-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$995
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$951
• − Management: −$951
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,235
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$536
• After-tax cash flow: $2,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845720
• Math proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,861
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5060
• State rank: #378 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitney

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #6568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,662

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.72%
• Current HPI: 252.9827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $75,000 FSBO.com
• 2012-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $995 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.