259 Tuscarora Trl · Gasburg, VA 27842

$249,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1972 0.95 ac lot $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 32% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable off-shore home in the desirable NE Quad of Lake Gaston within minutes to the FoodLion Shopping Center, Ace Hardware, Family Dollar, local restaurants, etc. The main level has beautiful hardwood floors. The basement is unfinished and has heating/cooling along with a small woodstove which will convey. The property consists of two lots. This home is being offered at this low price in as-is condition, was inherited, never lived in by the seller. The furnishings in the home at time of offer will convey at no cost.

Key facts

• Three lots
• Unfinished basement
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• NE QUAD OF LAKE GASTON
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• THREE LOTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property in Indian Rock subdivision; Zoned residential; Lot roughly 0.95 acre
• HOA & community: Approx. $25 monthly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Gravel parking; Has carport
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured (modular/off-frame) residential home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as a manufactured/modular home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Deck; Paved road access; Lake Gaston nearby view

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Storm windows; Full unfinished basement; Storage outbuilding

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.1% in Gasburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#345 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Northampton County Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #176 of 178 in NC (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northampton County High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #530 of 535 statewide, top 99%, 240 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 78% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 17 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Northampton County population projected at -40% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,848 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.15%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $708,400
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
188 Cherokee Trl	0.11mi	3/3.0	1,275 (-1%)	7mo	$360,000	$282	88
142 Lakeview Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+9%)	9mo	$775,000	$550	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $39,399
• Equity at exit: $105,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $126,144
• Equity at exit: $158,210

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27842

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,495/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,974

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 525-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 55 DOM
18. 2026-05-03
    price $249,000
19. 2026-05-03
    status Active
20. 2026-04-29
    status Active
21. 2026-03-25
    status Pending
22. 2026-02-25
    listed $239,900 Active
23. 2026-01-23
    price $335,000
24. 2026-01-08
    price $359,000
25. 2025-11-22
    price $363,000
26. 2025-10-12
    listed $368,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,495 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$547/yr (+$46/mo · 36.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 48% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,495
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$1,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$303
• After-tax cash flow: $3,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northampton County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703420
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,548
• Composite: 13.24/100
• National rank: #9551
• State rank: #176 of 178 in NC

Livability — Gasburg

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #345
• US rank: #13729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing C- Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,439

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,395 people
• By 2030: 15,794 · -9.2%
• By 2040: 12,810 · -26.4%
• By 2050: 10,488 · -39.7%
• By 2075: 7,778 · -55.3%
• By 2100: 7,019 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 24% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: D (+14.5) · D 57.0% · R 42.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 30.4pp · 2024: 14.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.5 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Current HPI: 192.5299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-32.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $249,000 RVLG
• 2026-05-03 Relisted — RVLG
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — RVLG
• 2026-03-25 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-02-25 Listed $239,900 RVLG
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $335,000 RVLG
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $359,000 RVLG
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $363,000 RVLG
• 2025-10-12 Listed $368,000 RVLG

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,495 · +71.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.