9570 Grapevine Ave · Grape Creek, TX 76901

$184,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1971 0.52 ac lot $100/sqft · 17% below area Est $223k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in READY! This 4 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath will totally surprise you with all of its modern updates. Owners have done a lot of renovations to this one! Some of the awesome features include open concept, new flooring, new cabinets gorgeous backsplash, new light fixtures, spacious living room, and an extra large pantry perfect for storage! Seller says there is over 1,900 sq ft, so lots of room for a growing family. Two of the bedrooms have new mini-splits that will keep each room well heated and cooled all year round and are energy efficient. There is one extra room that could be an office or 5th bedroom. This beautiful home is on a water well, sits on a little over half an acre and is a corner lot, right across from the elementary school. Don't wait too long, it won't last long!

Key facts

• Large living area
• Outdoor entertaining
• Oversized lot

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED LOT
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces); Attached parking; Additional parking; Driveway; Gated entry; RV access/parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water available; Well water; Sewer connected; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Updated / remodeled
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as an updated/remodeled home
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Fenced yard; Corner lot; Landscaped; Paved city street frontage; Public maintained road; Barn; Outbuilding; Shed; RV/boat storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric range; Oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Wall/window unit(s); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Ceiling fans; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.6% in Grape Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#545 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grape Creek ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #675 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grape Creek Pri (316 students, 74% FRL); Grape Creek Middle (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,360 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 270 students, 60% FRL); Grape Creek H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 308 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,965 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,960
• List price: $184,500
• Delta: -17.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7685 Chaparral Run Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,746 (-5%)	2mo	$165,000	$95	65
9762 Mt Nebo Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,956 (+6%)	7mo	$215,000	$110	63
7781 Kildee Trl	0.56mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+6%)	15mo	$295,000	$151	44
7730 Sandpiper Way	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,646 (-10%)	14mo	$225,000	$137	43
9917 Cottontail Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (-9%)	20mo	$215,000	$129	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $126,209
• Equity at exit: $166,212

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $368,492
• Equity at exit: $358,443

Cash invested: $51,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76901

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$968
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,088/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,542

Max offer price $184,500

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $369	+0% $316	+5% $264	+10% $212
Rent	-10% $163	-5% $240	+0% $316	+5% $393	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $409	-0.5pp $363	base $316	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,125
• Closing costs: $5,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $184,500 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $184,500 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,500 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,500 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,500 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,500 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,500 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,500 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,500 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $184,500 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,500 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,500 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,500 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,500 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,500 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,500 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,500 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,500 Active 18 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    listed $185,000 Active 736-char remark
20. 2026-03-12
    price $189,999 195-char remark
21. 2026-01-05
    price $199,999 195-char remark
22. 2025-11-30
    price $204,999 195-char remark
23. 2025-11-05
    price $209,999 195-char remark
24. 2025-09-21
    listed $214,999 Active 195-char remark
25. 2021-03-29
    soldstatus
26. 2021-03-18
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Move in READY! This 4 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath will totally surprise you with all of its modern updates. Owners have done a lot of renovations to this one! Some of the awesome features include open concept, new flooring, new cabinets gorgeous backsplash, new light fixtures, spacious living room, and an extra large pantry perfect for storage! Seller says there is over 1,900 sq ft, so lots of room for a growing family. Two of the bedrooms have new mini-splits that will keep each room well heated and cooled all year round and are energy efficient. There is one extra room that could be an office or 5th bedroom. This beautiful home is on a water well, sits on a little over half an acre and is a corner lot, right across from the elementary school. Don't wait too long, it won't last long!

27. 2021-02-12
    listed $185,000

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Move in READY! This 4 bedroom 1 and 1/2 bath will totally surprise you with all of its modern updates. Owners have done a lot of renovations to this one! Some of the awesome features include open concept, new flooring, new cabinets gorgeous backsplash, new light fixtures, spacious living room, and an extra large pantry perfect for storage! Seller says there is over 1,900 sq ft, so lots of room for a growing family. Two of the bedrooms have new mini-splits that will keep each room well heated and cooled all year round and are energy efficient. There is one extra room that could be an office or 5th bedroom. This beautiful home is on a water well, sits on a little over half an acre and is a corner lot, right across from the elementary school. Don't wait too long, it won't last long!

28. 2019-04-12
    soldstatus
29. 2019-04-12
    soldstatus
30. 2019-01-24
    listed $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,088 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,376 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,288/yr (+$107/mo · 61.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,335
• − Property taxes: −$2,088
• − Insurance: −$922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − Depreciation: −$5,367
• Taxable income: $870
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$209
• After-tax cash flow: $3,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grape Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821600
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,891
• Composite: 23.6/100
• National rank: #7849
• State rank: #675 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grape Creek

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #10581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grape Creek, TX
• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,831
• Household income: $69,450
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.96%
• Current HPI: 798.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+86.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $184,500 SAAR TX
• 2026-05-13 Listed $185,000 SAAR TX
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $189,999 PBBOR
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $199,999 PBBOR
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $204,999 PBBOR
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $209,999 PBBOR
• 2021-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-18 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2021-02-12 Listed $185,000 SAAR TX
• 2019-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-12 Sold (MLS) — SAAR TX
• 2019-01-24 Listed $99,000 SAAR TX

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,088 · -7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.