819 5th Ave · Erie, IL 61250

$24,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1997

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large living room, located on a corner lot in the Erie School District. Property is being sold AS-IS and is in poor condition. Home requires significant repairs and updates. 1-car garage and nice-sized yard. Property will not qualify for most financing; cash or renovation loan only. Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1997
• Listed 45 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $744 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#300 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Erie CUSD 1 (rural): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #167 of 620 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Whiteside County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whiteside County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $25k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $24,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 128.02%
• DSCR: 6.70
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $43,363
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.18×
• Total profit: $98,859
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61250

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,173 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $505/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $744

Break-even live

Break-even rent $232

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $751	+0% $744	+5% $737	+10% $730
Rent	-10% $651	-5% $697	+0% $744	+5% $790	+10% $836
Rate	-1.0pp $756	-0.5pp $750	base $744	+0.5pp $737	+1.0pp $731

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Manufactured home featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large living room, located on a corner lot in the Erie School District. Property is being sold AS-IS and is in poor condition. Home requires significant repairs and updates. 1-car garage and nice-sized yard. Property will not qualify for most financing; cash or renovation loan only. Buyer to verify all information.

2. 2026-03-20
   listed $24,900 Active 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Manufactured home featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a large living room, located on a corner lot in the Erie School District. Property is being sold AS-IS and is in poor condition. Home requires significant repairs and updates. 1-car garage and nice-sized yard. Property will not qualify for most financing; cash or renovation loan only. Buyer to verify all information.

3. 2021-08-06
   historical
4. 2006-07-07
   soldstatus $16,488
5. 2004-06-01
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $535 · $45/mo
• Expected delta: +$30/yr (+$3/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$505
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,126
• − Management: −$1,126
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $9,077
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,179
• After-tax cash flow: $6,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1714350
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $57,258
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5752
• State rank: #167 of 620 in IL

Livability — Erie

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #5810

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,843

Population outlook (Whiteside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,736 people
• By 2030: 51,657 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 47,169 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 42,613 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 32,691 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 22,638 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% English 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Whiteside

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 41.7% · R 56.4% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+8.3 2016: R+6.3 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.73%
• Current HPI: 149.049
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+51.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $24,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $16,488 Public Records
• 2004-06-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $505 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.