Birch Plan · Slidell, LA 70461

$222,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · SingleFamily · 535 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Birch is one of our one-story floorplans featured in Lakeshore Villages, a new home community in Slidell, Louisiana. Inside this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home, you'll find 1,276 square feet of enjoyable living. Once you walk into this home, you'll see two bedrooms along with the guest bathroom. Walking down the foyer, you'll then reach the laundry room, as well as the open concept living space, starting with the kitchen. The kitchen offers shaker-style cabinets, gooseneck pulldown faucets in the kitchens. The chef in your family will also enjoy the stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, stove, microwave hood, dishwasher, single basin undermount sink. and 3 cm granite throughout. The kitchen also houses a pantry, and the separate laundry room is located on the other side, creating easy access to everything. The dining room is adjacent to the kitchen, and the living room is situated nearby. This smart layout ensures that anyone in either space can always be part of the action, regardless of their location. Each bedroom is equipped with cozy carpeting and a convenient closet. Whether you need a space for entertainment, storage, hosting guests, relaxation, or fitness activities, you can count on feeling comfortable and content. The primary bedroom is in the rear of the home and has its own en suite. The primary bathroom features a double vanity with a tub/shower combo, large walk-in closet, separate linen closet, and a separate water closet.

Key facts

• One story floorplans
• 3 cm granite
• Garage

Tags

• ONE STORY FLOORPLANS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• GOOSENECK PULLDOWN FAUCETS
• SINGLE BASIN UNDERMOUNT SINK
• 3 CM GRANITE

🏗️ New construction. The $222,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $241,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-414/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#57 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W.L. Abney Elementary School (math 31% / reading 38%, grade F, #284 of 646 statewide, top 46%, 1,094 students, 70% FRL); St. Tammany Junior High School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #114 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 793 students, 68% FRL); Salmen High School (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #179 of 265 statewide, top 68%, 1,216 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 40% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Tammany Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 922 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 535 days — a 12% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $196,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 535 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.61%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,900
• List price: $222,900
• Delta: -7.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3421 Ward Creek Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,276 (0%)	1mo	$219,900	$172	96
3481 Ward Creek Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-7%)	2mo	$195,000	$164	84
4721 Cotton Grass Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-8%)	1mo	$174,900	$148	84
4729 Cotton Grass Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-8%)	1mo	$174,900	$148	84
5481 Fornea Glen Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+10%)	6mo	$224,900	$160	76
5429 Fornea Glen Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+10%)	7mo	$236,900	$169	75
5473 Fornea Glen Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+10%)	8mo	$225,990	$161	74
5465 Fornea Glen Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+10%)	10mo	$224,900	$160	72
5461 Fornea Glen Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,405 (+10%)	11mo	$224,900	$160	72
3947 Seagull Cir	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+12%)	11mo	$211,900	$149	40
4778 Cotton Grass Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+12%)	5mo	$216,900	$152	38
4786 Cotton Grass Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+12%)	4mo	$216,900	$152	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-44,000
• Equity at exit: $36,068

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-51,556
• Equity at exit: $20,915

Cash invested: $67,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 49 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.1 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $234,900 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 70461

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 922
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$302 /mo · $3,628/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,116

Max offer price $236,908

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $49	+0% $-34	+5% $-118	+10% $-202
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-116	+0% $-34	+5% $47	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $27	base $-34	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,475
• Closing costs: $7,257
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4729 Cotton Grass Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1178	$2,100	$1.78	14d	1	0.05mi
4729 Cotton Grass Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1178	$2,100	$1.78	6d	1	0.05mi
3604 Spruce Key Ln Slidell, LA	3.0–4.0	2.0	1539	$2,150	$1.40	185d	1	0.52mi
3604 Spruce Key Ln Slidell, LA	3.0–4.0	2.0	1646	$2,150	$1.31	0d	8	0.52mi
3616 Spruce Key Ln Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,395	$1.46	107d	1	0.54mi
5579 Grand Springs Rd Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,200	$1.18	184d	1	0.59mi
5579 Grand Springs Rd Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,200	$1.18	46d	1	0.59mi
3877 Seagull Cir Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1425	$2,350	$1.65	55d	1	0.63mi
3886 Seagull Cir Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,950	$1.64	10d	1	0.64mi
3886 Seagull Cir Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,950	$1.64	14d	1	0.64mi
5748 Spring Briar St Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,400	$1.39	38d	1	0.68mi
5748 Spring Briar St Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,400	$1.39	14d	1	0.68mi
7535 1st Lake Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,195	$1.40	158d	1	0.69mi
7535 1st Lake Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,195	$1.40	126d	1	0.69mi
301 Lakeshore Blvd N Slidell, LA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,408	$1.24	0d	1	0.74mi
3415 Tide Wind Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,200	$1.34	51d	1	0.76mi
5265 Summer Pecan Rd Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1647	$2,200	$1.34	108d	1	0.80mi
7472 1st Lake Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,000	$1.54	112d	1	0.82mi
541 New Basin Rd Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,250	$1.55	133d	1	0.82mi
785 Bent Cypress Ln Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,200	$1.22	10d	1	0.86mi
200 Long St Slidell, LA	2.0–4.0	2.0	1112	$1,373	$1.23	0d	1	0.87mi
713 Lakeshore Vlg E Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,100	$1.34	184d	1	0.88mi
705 Lakeshore Vlg E Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,150	$1.37	14d	1	0.88mi
705 Lakeshore Vlg E Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,150	$1.37	6d	1	0.88mi
3500 Oak Harbor Blvd Slidell, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,425	$1.62	0d	12	0.94mi
4356 Marais River Dr Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,295	$1.23	10d	1	0.97mi
4356 Marais River Dr Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,200	$1.18	14d	1	0.97mi
4377 Marais River Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1570	$2,045	$1.30	10d	1	0.98mi
408 Lakeshore Vlg E Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1785	$2,395	$1.34	138d	1	1.05mi
3900 Lakeshore Blvd E Unit 233 Slidell, LA	2.0	2.0	1219	$1,690	$1.39	157d	1	1.11mi
3900 Lakeshore Blvd E Slidell, LA	2.0	2.0	1219	$1,755	$1.44	143d	2	1.14mi
3900 Lakeshore Blvd E #125 Slidell, LA	2.0	2.0	1219	$1,670	$1.37	184d	1	1.14mi
3900 Lakeshore Blvd E Slidell, LA	2.0	2.0	1219	$1,755	$1.44	0d	1	1.14mi
140 E Lake Ct Slidell, LA	4.0	2.0	1683	$2,200	$1.31	51d	1	1.23mi
100 Marina Dr Unit 100 Slidell, LA	3.0	3.0	1850	$1,925	$1.04	144d	1	1.26mi
224 Marina Dr Slidell, LA	2.0	1.5	1287	$1,400	$1.09	184d	1	1.26mi
232 Marina Dr Slidell, LA	2.0	1.5	1250	$1,500	$1.20	184d	1	1.26mi
152 Marina Dr Slidell, LA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	161d	1	1.27mi
592 Marina Dr Slidell, LA	3.0	2.0	1869	$3,500	$1.87	35d	1	1.28mi
732 Marina Dr Slidell, LA	2.0	2.5	1182	$1,975	$1.67	10d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $222,900 Active 535 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $222,900 Active 534 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $222,900 Active 533 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $222,900 Active 532 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $222,900 Active 531 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $222,900 Active 529 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $222,900 Active 528 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $222,900 Active 527 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $222,900 Active 526 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $222,900 Active 525 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $222,900 Active 524 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $222,900 Active 523 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $222,900 Active 522 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $222,900 Active 521 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $222,900 Active 520 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $222,900 Active 519 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $222,900 Active 518 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $222,900 Active 517 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $222,900 Active 516 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $222,900 Active 515 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $222,900 Active 514 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $222,900 Active 513 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $222,900 Active 512 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $222,900 Active 511 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $222,900 Active 510 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $222,900 Active 509 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $222,900 Active 508 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $222,900 Active 507 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $222,900 Active 506 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $222,900 Active 505 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $222,900 Active 504 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $222,900 Active 503 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $222,900 Active 502 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $222,900 Active 501 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $222,900 Active 500 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $222,900 Active 499 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $222,900 Active 498 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $222,900 Active 497 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $222,900 Active 496 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $222,900 Active 495 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $222,900 Active 494 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $222,900 Active 493 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $222,900 Active 491 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $222,900 Active 490 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $222,900 Active 489 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $222,900 Active 488 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $222,900 Active 487 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $222,900 Active 486 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $222,900 Active 485 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $222,900 Active 484 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,550
• − Property taxes: −$3,628
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$7,037
• Taxable loss: −$4,535
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,088
• After-tax cash flow: $674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Abney Elementary Early Childhood Center Middle St. Tammany Junior High School F LA #114/218 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Salmen High School F LA #179/265 Nat'l #13,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Slidell

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #7673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 286,725 people
• City population: 95,511
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,808
• Household income: $89,003
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 3%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.47%
• Current HPI: 151.3353
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $222,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $229,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-22 Listed $233,900 Zillow