612 County Road 3570 · China Spring, TX 76633

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1992 5.07 ac lot $127/sqft · 44% below area Est $332k · 44% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the peace and privacy of country living with this 5.07-acre heavily wooded property located just 10–15 minutes from the heart of China Spring. Surrounded by mature trees and abundant wildlife, this property offers the perfect setting to build your dream home or create a private retreat. The land is fully fenced around the perimeter, providing security and flexibility for animals, recreation, or future development. An older mobile home currently sits on the property, offering potential for temporary use, storage, or removal to make way for your custom build. Enjoy the quiet beauty of nature while still being conveniently close to town, schools, and amenities. China Spring ISD

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Abundant wildlife
• 5.07-acre property

Tags

• 5.07-ACRE PROPERTY
• HEAVILY WOODED PROPERTY
• FULLY FENCED
• MATURE TREES
• ABUNDANT WILDLIFE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.0% in China Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#411 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• China Spring ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #70 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bosque County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bosque County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,168
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -44.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 CR 3565 Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	22mo	$155,000	$106	74
785 CR 3570	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	6mo	$315,000	$216	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,575
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,464
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76633

• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,809 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,437/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,583

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Escape to the peace and privacy of country living with this 5.07-acre heavily wooded property located just 10–15 minutes from the heart of China Spring. Surrounded by mature trees and abundant wildlife, this property offers the perfect setting to build your dream home or create a private retreat. The land is fully fenced around the perimeter, providing security and flexibility for animals, recreation, or future development. An older mobile home currently sits on the property, offering potential for temporary use, storage, or removal to make way for your custom build. Enjoy the quiet beauty of nature while still being conveniently close to town, schools, and amenities. China Spring ISD

2. 2026-05-02
   historical Active Option Contract 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Escape to the peace and privacy of country living with this 5.07-acre heavily wooded property located just 10–15 minutes from the heart of China Spring. Surrounded by mature trees and abundant wildlife, this property offers the perfect setting to build your dream home or create a private retreat. The land is fully fenced around the perimeter, providing security and flexibility for animals, recreation, or future development. An older mobile home currently sits on the property, offering potential for temporary use, storage, or removal to make way for your custom build. Enjoy the quiet beauty of nature while still being conveniently close to town, schools, and amenities. China Spring ISD

3. 2026-04-08
   price $185,000 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Escape to the peace and privacy of country living with this 5.07-acre heavily wooded property located just 10–15 minutes from the heart of China Spring. Surrounded by mature trees and abundant wildlife, this property offers the perfect setting to build your dream home or create a private retreat. The land is fully fenced around the perimeter, providing security and flexibility for animals, recreation, or future development. An older mobile home currently sits on the property, offering potential for temporary use, storage, or removal to make way for your custom build. Enjoy the quiet beauty of nature while still being conveniently close to town, schools, and amenities. China Spring ISD

4. 2026-03-15
   listed $200,000 Active 701-char remark

   Show marketing remark (701 chars)

   Escape to the peace and privacy of country living with this 5.07-acre heavily wooded property located just 10–15 minutes from the heart of China Spring. Surrounded by mature trees and abundant wildlife, this property offers the perfect setting to build your dream home or create a private retreat. The land is fully fenced around the perimeter, providing security and flexibility for animals, recreation, or future development. An older mobile home currently sits on the property, offering potential for temporary use, storage, or removal to make way for your custom build. Enjoy the quiet beauty of nature while still being conveniently close to town, schools, and amenities. China Spring ISD

5. 2003-01-23
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,437 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$949/yr (+$79/mo · 38.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,437
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,737
• − Management: −$1,737
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$871
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$209
• After-tax cash flow: $2,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: China Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813960
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,314
• Composite: 50.64/100
• National rank: #1837
• State rank: #70 of 826 in TX

Livability — China Spring

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #8486

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,037

Population outlook (Bosque County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 16,953 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 16,014 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 15,116 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 13,468 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 11,147 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bosque

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.3) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -51.9pp · 2024: -67.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.3 2020: R+64.7 2016: R+64.7 2012: R+61.4 2008: R+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.76%
• Current HPI: 242.4084
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2003-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,437 · -13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.