1320 N Fairgrounds Rd #809 · Midland, TX 79706

$175,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 87 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition $112/sqft · at area comps Est $176k · at est. ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next home in the established Stonegate community! This beautiful 2024, 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers plenty of space to live, relax, and grow. You'll love the open layout, sun-filled living area, modern kitchen, and roomy bedrooms designed for comfort. Enjoy a quiet neighborhood feel while staying close to everything you need. Mobile home is located at Stonegate community, land is not included. Space can be leased directly with Stonegate or can be moved to your own lot.

Key facts

• Built 2024
• Listed 86 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.92%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,047
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -0.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $43,544
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $128,540
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79706

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 379
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,974 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $1,140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1320 N Fairgrounds Rd #706 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$3,500	$2.57	13d	1	0.35mi
813 Calumet St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1898	$2,650	$1.40	20d	1	0.47mi
1805 Magnolia Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2174	$2,200	$1.01	20d	1	0.77mi
1500 N Terrell St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2027	$2,600	$1.28	13d	1	1.43mi
302 N Carver St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1569	$2,500	$1.59	20d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    listed $175,000 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Welcome to your next home in the established Stonegate community! This beautiful 2024, 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers plenty of space to live, relax, and grow. You'll love the open layout, sun-filled living area, modern kitchen, and roomy bedrooms designed for comfort. Enjoy a quiet neighborhood feel while staying close to everything you need. Mobile home is located at Stonegate community, land is not included. Space can be leased directly with Stonegate or can be moved to your own lot.

18. 2025-10-25
    price $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,855
• − Management: −$2,855
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $11,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,780
• After-tax cash flow: $10,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2024 manufactured home in the Stonegate community is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for cosmetic upgrades to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,281
• Household income: $108,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 44% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.42%
• Current HPI: 212.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $175,000 PBBOR
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $200,000 PBBOR