8865 E Baseline Rd #1417 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 115 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $166/sqft · 62% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience resort-style living in this beautifully maintained 2021 Cavco St. George model located in the highly desirable Monte Vista Village Resort in Mesa, Arizona. One of the community's most popular and sought-after floor plans, this home offers an open-concept layout with upgraded cabinetry, neutral wood-look laminate flooring throughout, and freshly painted interiors in a soft Swiss Coffee tone for a light, modern aesthetic. The spacious kitchen opens seamlessly to the living and dining areas, creating an ideal space for entertaining or seasonal living. The extended covered carport comfortably accommodates two vehicles and leads to a custom 8x10 site-built storage shed--perfect for golf cart parking, hobby space, or additional storage. Both front and back patios have been upgraded with extended paver finishes, offering multiple outdoor living areas to enjoy Arizona's year-round sunshine. Ideally positioned in a prime location near the resort's world-class amenities--including pools, fitness center, pickleball, ballroom, and activity centers--this home offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you are seeking a full-time residence, winter retreat, or investment opportunity in one of Mesa's premier 55+ resort communities, this St. George model delivers comfort, style, and value.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 165 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.51%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 62.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8865 E Baseline Rd #715	0.00mi	2/2.0	998 (-6%)	3mo	$108,000	$108	89
8865 E Baseline Rd #1207	0.00mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,085 (+3%)	4mo	$45,000	$41	85
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 149B	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	2mo	$235,000	$223	78
8865 E Baseline Rd #531	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,032 (-2%)	16mo	$168,000	$163	76
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 129B	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,088 (+3%)	7mo	$110,000	$101	68
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 157B	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	13mo	$325,000	$308	68
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #180	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	2mo	$105,000	$99	68
110 S Ellsworth Rd	0.36mi	2/2.0	906 (-14%)	0mo	$192,000	$212	59
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #257	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,107 (+5%)	16mo	$115,000	$104	48
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #219	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,146 (+8%)	13mo	$95,000	$83	48
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #432	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+12%)	13mo	$150,000	$127	40
2550 S Ellsworth Rd #411	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+15%)	13mo	$200,000	$165	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $29,431
• Equity at exit: $63,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $79,012
• Equity at exit: $87,983

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $490	+0% $429	+5% $369	+10% $308
Rent	-10% $265	-5% $347	+0% $429	+5% $511	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $517	-0.5pp $474	base $429	+0.5pp $384	+1.0pp $338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8865 E Baseline Rd #1028 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	44d	1	0.04mi
2223 S Gordon Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,250	$1.76	24d	1	0.06mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #300 Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	764	$2,000	$2.62	19d	1	0.14mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	5d	1	0.14mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	24d	1	0.26mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	20d	1	0.26mi
8438 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1363	$2,300	$1.69	24d	1	0.44mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 101B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,555	$1.68	44d	1	0.46mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 3B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,606	$1.65	15d	1	0.46mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 94B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$3,702	$4.01	24d	1	0.46mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,717	$1.48	2d	14	0.77mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	15d	3	0.82mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	24d	1	0.82mi
9233 E Neville Ave #1088 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,850	$1.75	5d	1	0.89mi
2821 S Skyline #157 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,200	$1.53	4d	1	0.90mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	3d	11	0.90mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	24d	1	0.90mi
2311 S Farnsworth Dr #85 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1332	$3,300	$2.48	4d	1	0.90mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,772	$2.96	1d	1	0.95mi
2024 S Baldwin #40 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1384	$1,800	$1.30	24d	1	0.95mi
2821 S Skyline #127 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,350	$1.63	44d	1	0.95mi
2064 S Farnsworth Dr #25 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,595	$1.58	22d	1	0.97mi
7950 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,995	$1.62	24d	1	0.99mi
2024 S Baldwin #154 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,689	$1.41	17d	1	1.02mi
2024 S Baldwin #154 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1132	$1,689	$1.49	5d	1	1.02mi
2024 S Baldwin #114 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1148	$1,700	$1.48	24d	1	1.05mi
2024 S Baldwin #114 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1148	$1,700	$1.48	12d	1	1.05mi
8843 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,050	$1.51	5d	1	1.15mi
8462 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1473	$1,995	$1.35	44d	1	1.16mi
8852 E Plana Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,995	$1.47	44d	1	1.20mi
3121 S Mandy Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,190	$1.61	4d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-02-24
    listed $175,000 Active 1328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1328 chars)

    Experience resort-style living in this beautifully maintained 2021 Cavco St. George model located in the highly desirable Monte Vista Village Resort in Mesa, Arizona. One of the community's most popular and sought-after floor plans, this home offers an open-concept layout with upgraded cabinetry, neutral wood-look laminate flooring throughout, and freshly painted interiors in a soft Swiss Coffee tone for a light, modern aesthetic. The spacious kitchen opens seamlessly to the living and dining areas, creating an ideal space for entertaining or seasonal living. The extended covered carport comfortably accommodates two vehicles and leads to a custom 8x10 site-built storage shed--perfect for golf cart parking, hobby space, or additional storage. Both front and back patios have been upgraded with extended paver finishes, offering multiple outdoor living areas to enjoy Arizona's year-round sunshine. Ideally positioned in a prime location near the resort's world-class amenities--including pools, fitness center, pickleball, ballroom, and activity centers--this home offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you are seeking a full-time residence, winter retreat, or investment opportunity in one of Mesa's premier 55+ resort communities, this St. George model delivers comfort, style, and value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $2,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$603
• After-tax cash flow: $4,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2021 Cavco St. George model in the Monte Vista Village Resort offers an open-concept layout with modern finishes and a neutral color palette. The home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers
• Both Upgrade to smart home features — Can increase home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Upgrade to smart home features — Can increase home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $175,000 ARMLS