619 Sandy Ln · Morganfield, KY 42437

$374,900

12 bd · 8.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · MultiFamily · 229 Days on market

Built 1991 Fair condition ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

This investment opportunity is a rare find!!! There are 4 mobile homes with an additional lot already prepared with poured concrete for additional mobile home. This property is also certified as a mobile home park with the state.

Key facts

• Additional lot
• Poured concrete
• Built 1991

Tags

• ADDITIONAL LOT
• POURED CONCRETE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $375k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-55/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#336 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Union County (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #134 of 165 in KY (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Morganfield Elementary School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 307 students, 71% FRL); Union County Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 437 students, 58% FRL); Union County High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 630 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,200 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-51,482
• Equity at exit: $80,567

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-41,470
• Equity at exit: $76,404

Cash invested: $104,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42437

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 41.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,002 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,624/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $343,171

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $40	-5% $-90	+0% $-219	+5% $-349	+10% $-478
Rent	-10% $-456	-5% $-338	+0% $-219	+5% $-101	+10% $18
Rate	-1.0pp $-30	-0.5pp $-124	base $-219	+0.5pp $-316	+1.0pp $-415

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$3,000
Total (4 units)			$3,002

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,725
• Closing costs: $11,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $374,900 Active 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $374,900 Active 228 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,900 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,900 Active 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,900 Active 224 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,900 Active 223 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,900 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $374,900 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,900 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,900 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,900 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,900 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,900 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,900 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,900 Active 209 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,900 Active 208 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,900 Active 207 DOM
18. 2026-04-02
    price $374,900 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    This investment opportunity is a rare find!!! There are 4 mobile homes with an additional lot already prepared with poured concrete for additional mobile home. This property is also certified as a mobile home park with the state.

19. 2025-11-04
    listed $399,900 Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    This investment opportunity is a rare find!!! There are 4 mobile homes with an additional lot already prepared with poured concrete for additional mobile home. This property is also certified as a mobile home park with the state.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,024
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,000
• − Property taxes: −$5,624
• − Insurance: −$1,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,882
• − Management: −$2,882
• − Depreciation: −$10,906
• Taxable loss: −$9,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This multi-family property presents as a moderate rehab opportunity with average condition. Painting and landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Painting — Siding and exterior walls show signs of weathering
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation needs trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Painting · Siding and exterior walls show signs of weathering	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown vegetation needs trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union County
• NCES district ID: 2105640
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,776
• Composite: 22.27/100
• National rank: #8139
• State rank: #134 of 165 in KY

Livability — Morganfield

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #336
• US rank: #15964

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morganfield, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,250

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,038 people
• By 2030: 14,681 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 13,607 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 12,406 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 9,720 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 7,841 · -47.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.3) · D 20.2% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -53.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -58.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.3 2020: R+52.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.56%
• Current HPI: 222.4762
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $374,900 GORAMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $399,900 GORAMLS