2516 Barclay St · Baltimore, MD 21218

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1929 4,356 sqft lot Est $193k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tenant : $825 per month starting April 1, 2016 One year leaseNew Items : New roof and gutters Roof has 3 years left on the warrantyLead certificationNew interior paint and carpet

Key facts

• Completely renovated
• Built 1929

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• THREE-STORY TOWNHOMES
• GARDENS AND GREEN SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property in good condition; Ownership interest: Ground rent
• Financial info: Ground rent $180 paid semi-annually

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse
• Construction: Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Not in a federal flood zone; Ground rent exists (paid semi-annually)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Oven (single); Stove; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Table space in kitchen; Window treatments; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $155k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.43%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
728 Bartlett Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+11%)	2mo	$40,000	$36	63
406 W 23rd St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (+2%)	1mo	$247,000	$245	62
3045 Frisby St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+6%)	3mo	$162,000	$153	60
2736 Fox St	0.58mi	2/1.5 (-1)	960 (-3%)	2mo	$240,000	$250	58
616 E 30th St	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (+10%)	2mo	$65,000	$60	57
2956 Greenmount Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,130 (+14%)	1mo	$209,395	$185	53
2602 Miles Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,084 (+9%)	1mo	$240,000	$221	52
3132 Ellerslie Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	870 (-12%)	0mo	$170,000	$195	51
3103 Independence St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	930 (-6%)	5mo	$145,000	$156	51
616 Montpelier St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+13%)	2mo	$145,000	$129	51
318 W 28th St	0.61mi	2/1.5 (-1)	912 (-8%)	4mo	$277,000	$304	48
2713 Hampden Ave	0.64mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,138 (+15%)	1mo	$320,000	$281	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,745
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,591
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21218

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,644/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $384	+0% $341	+5% $297	+10% $253
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $273	+0% $341	+5% $408	+10% $476
Rate	-1.0pp $419	-0.5pp $380	base $341	+0.5pp $301	+1.0pp $260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2516 Barclay St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	16d	1	0.02mi
2535 Greenmount Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	44d	1	0.09mi
2637 Saint Paul St Unit 1A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	5d	1	0.25mi
2440 Saint Paul St Unit 4E Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	891	$1,625	$1.82	44d	1	0.27mi
436 Ilchester Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	0.28mi
2315 St Paul St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	579	$1,595	$2.75	2d	5	0.29mi
2300 N Calvert St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	3d	2	0.30mi
2821 Mathews St Unit 27-668 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	730	$1,050	$1.44	24d	1	0.31mi
3012 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,100	$1.10	18d	1	0.45mi
2752 Maryland Ave Unit 2ND FLOOR Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	18d	1	0.46mi
3026 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,350	$1.36	15d	1	0.47mi
3126 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,770	$2.53	4d	1	0.55mi
3130 Guilford Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,790	$2.56	18d	1	0.56mi
3221 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1025	$2,925	$2.85	18d	1	0.62mi
2310 Aisquith St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	5d	1	0.64mi
1711 Latrobe St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,700	$1.70	24d	1	0.66mi
1708 Latrobe St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$2,250	$3.00	24d	1	0.66mi
448 Pitman Pl Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	940	$2,145	$2.28	24d	1	0.72mi
412 E Federal St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	24d	1	0.75mi
210 Federal St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	20d	1	0.79mi
3501 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.5	916	$2,700	$2.95	2d	172	0.79mi
304 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	804	$890	$1.11	24d	5	0.83mi
1 E University Pkwy Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1045	$2,500	$2.39	5d	2	0.91mi
1201 W Mount Royal Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$2,894	$3.16	3d	12	0.95mi
1312 Guilford Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,850	$1.78	44d	6	0.95mi
103 E Mt Royal Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,624	$3.09	2d	17	0.95mi
1519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	44d	1	0.96mi
1040 E 33rd St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,525	$1.97	3d	10	0.97mi
9 E Mount Royal Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	724	$2,495	$3.44	2d	15	0.98mi
1301 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–3.0	1050	$2,399	$2.28	44d	1	1.00mi
22 E Preston St Unit 22-1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,699	$1.70	5d	1	1.01mi
3221 The Alameda Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	24d	1	1.06mi
1729 Park Ave Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	900	$1,725	$1.92	5d	1	1.08mi
1214 N Charles St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	1103	$2,333	$2.11	2d	14	1.08mi
612 Harding Pl Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$2,200	$2.75	5d	1	1.08mi
612 Chestnut Hill Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,999	$2.22	44d	1	1.08mi
1111 Park Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	738	$2,139	$2.90	3d	21	1.09mi
1122 N Calvert St Apt 001 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	902	$1,800	$2.00	44d	1	1.10mi
1125 Saint Paul St Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	930	$1,650	$1.77	5d	1	1.10mi
1125 Saint Paul St Unit 4 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	930	$1,650	$1.77	18d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 687-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $154,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,644 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,666 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,644
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,646
• − Management: −$1,646
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $1,681
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$404
• After-tax cash flow: $3,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 44,014
• Household income: $62,488
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2564.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.14%
• Current HPI: 292.3986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+759.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-13 Rental Removed $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $1,399 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $1,499 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-21 Listed for Rent $1,550 APPFOLIO
• 2017-01-05 Sold (MLS) $64,500 MRIS
• 2017-01-05 Sold (MLS) $64,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-12-09 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-08-17 Listed $65,000 MRIS
• 2013-07-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-07-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-06-05 Relisted — MRIS
• 2013-06-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-04-30 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2013-04-11 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-04-11 Listed $72,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $26,250 Public Records
• 1993-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $18,018 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,644 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.