2629 Mchenry Landing Ln · Houston, TX 77051

$304,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,719 sqft · Land · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 3,397 sqft lot $177/sqft · at area comps Est $312k · at est. $113/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Jasmine floor plan, D.R. Horton’s newest 4 bedroom floorplan is a spacious two-story home offering 1,719 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, complete with a two-car garage and 2.5 bathrooms. As you enter the home, you’re greeted by a charming front foyer that leads into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a large island for additional storage and seating, as well as a walk-in pantry for added convenience. As you head upstairs, the second story reveals a functional layout that suits families of all sizes. At the back of the home, the private primary bedroom provides a peaceful retreat with two large windows that offer plenty of natural light. The Jasmine floor plan strikes the perfect balance of style, comfort, and practicality, making it the ideal home for your family. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to make the Jasmine your new home today!

Key facts

• Large windows
• Large island
• Two story home

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• LARGE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 315 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,352/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $235,206 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,490
• List price: $304,990
• Delta: -2.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $147,380
• Equity at exit: $274,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $461,673
• Equity at exit: $592,528

Cash invested: $85,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,352 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$113
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,811

Max offer price $252,523

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-152	-5% $-257	+0% $-363	+5% $-468	+10% $-573
Rent	-10% $-548	-5% $-455	+0% $-363	+5% $-270	+10% $-177
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-285	base $-363	+0.5pp $-442	+1.0pp $-522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,248
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,735	$1.41	22d	1	0.18mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	19d	1	0.21mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	6d	1	0.31mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	23d	1	0.31mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	0.49mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	0d	3	0.64mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	0.82mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	45d	1	0.84mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	45d	1	1.05mi
11900 Oakmoor Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,469	$1.65	4d	12	1.06mi
12320 Chesney Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,500	$1.75	4d	1	1.37mi
3002 Crown Gate Dr Unit 1568481P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2195	$3,345	$1.52	0d	1	1.40mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,932	$1.36	20d	1	1.49mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,961	$1.38	4d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $113 · $1,356/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 991-char remark

   Show marketing remark (991 chars)

   The Jasmine floor plan, D.R. Horton’s newest 4 bedroom floorplan is a spacious two-story home offering 1,719 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, complete with a two-car garage and 2.5 bathrooms. As you enter the home, you’re greeted by a charming front foyer that leads into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a large island for additional storage and seating, as well as a walk-in pantry for added convenience. As you head upstairs, the second story reveals a functional layout that suits families of all sizes. At the back of the home, the private primary bedroom provides a peaceful retreat with two large windows that offer plenty of natural light. The Jasmine floor plan strikes the perfect balance of style, comfort, and practicality, making it the ideal home for your family. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to make the Jasmine your new home today!

2. 2026-05-07
   price $304,990 991-char remark

   Show marketing remark (991 chars)

   The Jasmine floor plan, D.R. Horton’s newest 4 bedroom floorplan is a spacious two-story home offering 1,719 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, complete with a two-car garage and 2.5 bathrooms. As you enter the home, you’re greeted by a charming front foyer that leads into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a large island for additional storage and seating, as well as a walk-in pantry for added convenience. As you head upstairs, the second story reveals a functional layout that suits families of all sizes. At the back of the home, the private primary bedroom provides a peaceful retreat with two large windows that offer plenty of natural light. The Jasmine floor plan strikes the perfect balance of style, comfort, and practicality, making it the ideal home for your family. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to make the Jasmine your new home today!

3. 2026-05-05
   price $309,990 991-char remark

   Show marketing remark (991 chars)

   The Jasmine floor plan, D.R. Horton’s newest 4 bedroom floorplan is a spacious two-story home offering 1,719 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, complete with a two-car garage and 2.5 bathrooms. As you enter the home, you’re greeted by a charming front foyer that leads into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a large island for additional storage and seating, as well as a walk-in pantry for added convenience. As you head upstairs, the second story reveals a functional layout that suits families of all sizes. At the back of the home, the private primary bedroom provides a peaceful retreat with two large windows that offer plenty of natural light. The Jasmine floor plan strikes the perfect balance of style, comfort, and practicality, making it the ideal home for your family. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to make the Jasmine your new home today!

4. 2026-04-15
   listed $319,990 Active 991-char remark

   Show marketing remark (991 chars)

   The Jasmine floor plan, D.R. Horton’s newest 4 bedroom floorplan is a spacious two-story home offering 1,719 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, complete with a two-car garage and 2.5 bathrooms. As you enter the home, you’re greeted by a charming front foyer that leads into the open-concept dining, living, and kitchen area, perfect for modern living and entertaining. The kitchen is a highlight, featuring a large island for additional storage and seating, as well as a walk-in pantry for added convenience. As you head upstairs, the second story reveals a functional layout that suits families of all sizes. At the back of the home, the private primary bedroom provides a peaceful retreat with two large windows that offer plenty of natural light. The Jasmine floor plan strikes the perfect balance of style, comfort, and practicality, making it the ideal home for your family. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to make the Jasmine your new home today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,084
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,258
• − Management: −$2,258
• − HOA: −$1,356
• − Depreciation: −$8,872
• Taxable loss: −$9,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,329
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $304,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $309,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $319,990 HARMLS