4350 Cherokee Rd #19 · Stockton, CA
Flood risk 4/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- AH
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.14%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,142 – $2,507
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 102°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 10/10 · Severe
- Unhealthy air days now
- 28 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 28 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +22.5/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +7.5/10.0
- DSCR +7.5/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Schools +3.5/10.0
- Livability +2.9/5.0
- Appreciation +2.5/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -5.4
$105,000
4350 Cherokee Rd #19 · Stockton, CA 95215
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured
· 136 Days on market
Manufactured home
55+ age-restricted
Built 2003
$78/sqft
· 21% below area
Est $133k · 21% under
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Built in 2003, this spacious 1,344 sq. ft. double-wide manufactured home is located in Country Squire Mobile Estates, a 55+ community in Stockton. The home features 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, generous living areas, and an additional flex room offering options for a home office, hobby space, den, or other permitted use. The kitchen features stainless-steel appliances, and the indoor laundry room includes a washer and dryer. Central heating and air conditioning provide year-round comfort. Outdoor features include a covered deck, low-maintenance landscaping, a covered carport, storage shed and added privacy with no rear neighbors.
Key facts
- Covered deck
- Covered carport
- Community amenities
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $481 ($6k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
- Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.7% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
- Linden Unified (rural): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #806 of 1,400 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Waverly Elementary (366 students, 77% FRL); Waterloo Elementary (332 students, 48% FRL); Linden High (761 students, 68% FRL).
- Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 165d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$92,400
(12.0% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.64% ✓
- Cap rate
- 13.52%
- Cash-on-cash
- 25.82%
- DSCR
- 2.15
- GRM
- 5.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $133,207
- List price
- $105,000
- Delta
- -21.18%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 4 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3431 N Cherryland Rd #50 | 0.15mi | 2/2.0 | 1,152 (-14%) | 12mo | $125,000 | $109 | 60 |
| 3431 Cherryland Ave #71 | 0.09mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,200 (-11%) | 20mo | $112,500 | $94 | 56 |
| 4900 N Hwy. 99 #169 | 0.95mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,392 (+4%) | 3mo | $76,900 | $55 | 51 |
| 4900 N Highway 99 #50 | 0.87mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,440 (+7%) | 0mo | $144,000 | $100 | 48 |
| 5100 N Highway 99 #177 | 1.05mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,440 (+7%) | 0mo | $125,000 | $87 | 48 |
| 4900 N Hwy 99 Spc 249 | 0.99mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,276 (-5%) | 7mo | $98,000 | $77 | 46 |
| 5100 Highway 99 #31 | 1.11mi | 2/2.0 | 1,400 (+4%) | 17mo | $137,000 | $98 | 44 |
| 4900 N Highway 99 #61 | 0.87mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,344 (0%) | 20mo | $89,900 | $67 | 43 |
| 5100 N Highway | 1.04mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,500 (+12%) | 4mo | $165,000 | $110 | 37 |
| 4900 N Highway 99 #151 | 0.87mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,248 (-7%) | 17mo | $115,000 | $92 | 34 |
| 5100 N Highway 99 #90 | 1.05mi | 3/3.0 (+1) | 1,536 (+14%) | 15mo | $121,000 | $79 | 20 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 11.7%
- Equity multiple
- 1.47×
- Total profit
- $13,718
- Equity at exit
- $15,656
10-year hold
- IRR
- 20.8%
- Equity multiple
- 2.76×
- Total profit
- $51,851
- Equity at exit
- $9,078
Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.
Balanced market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 3 active · 3 under contract
- Months of supply
- 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $125,000 ($112/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 182 d
- This list price
- 33% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- -11.2% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 95215
- Home prices YoY
- -1.4%
- Active inventory
- 158
- Price-to-rent
- 5.1×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,719 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$551
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
- Insurance
- −$44
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$361
- Net cashflow
- $481
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$1,111
Max offer price
$105,000
Occupancy floor
67%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $553 | -5% $517 | +0% $481 | +5% $444 | +10% $408 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $345 | -5% $413 | +0% $481 | +5% $549 | +10% $616 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $534 | -0.5pp $507 | base $481 | +0.5pp $453 | +1.0pp $426 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $26,250
- Closing costs
- $3,150
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 3 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3232 Sanguinetti Ln Unit B Stockton, CA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1378 | $2,299 | $1.67 | 7d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 3232 Sanguinetti Ln Unit A Stockton, CA | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1378 | $2,200 | $1.60 | 164d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 3232 Sanguinetti Ln Unit B Stockton, CA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1378 | $2,200 | $1.60 | 164d | 1 | 1.47mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Park: Country Squire Mobile Home Park
- Financial info
- Land lease amount listed separately
- HOA & community
- Association membership requiredMonthly association feeAssociation fee includes managementCommunity clubhouseCommunity poolSenior community
Exterior
- Parking
- Covered parking
- Security
- Smoke detectorDouble strapped water heater
- Utilities
- Cable availablePublic sewerElectric: Other
- Home design
- Manufactured home located in a parkDouble wide
- Construction
- Silvercrest makeManufacturer: Delaware Western Homes CorpVinyl or other skirt
- Exterior features
- Landscaped front yardLandscaped back yardComposition roof
Interior
- Kitchen
- MicrowaveDishwasherFree standing gas rangeGas water heaterSee remarks for additional kitchen details
- Bedrooms
- 2 bedrooms
- Flooring
- Laminate
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathroomsShower stallsDouble sinks
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
- Interior features
- Laminate flooringFurnishedDining and living room combinedBreakfast area in kitchenLiving room with additional feature
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry insideWasher includedDryer included
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-11-08days on market $105,000 Active 136 DOM
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2026-11-07days on market $105,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-11-06days on market $105,000 Active 134 DOM
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2026-11-06price $105,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-11-05days on market $110,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-11-04days on market $110,000 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-11-02days on market $110,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-11-01days on market $110,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-10-31days on market $110,000 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-10-30days on market $110,000 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-10-29days on market $110,000 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-10-28days on market $110,000 Active 125 DOM
-
2026-10-27days on market $110,000 Active 124 DOM
-
2026-10-26days on market $110,000 Active 123 DOM
-
2026-10-26days on market $110,000 Active 122 DOM
-
2026-10-24days on market $110,000 Active 121 DOM
-
2026-10-23days on market $110,000 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-10-22days on market $110,000 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-10-21pricedays on market $110,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-10-20days on market $115,000 Active 117 DOM
-
2026-10-19days on market $115,000 Active 116 DOM
-
2026-10-18days on market $115,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-10-17days on market $115,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-10-16days on market $115,000 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-10-15days on market $115,000 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-10-14days on market $115,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-10-13days on market $115,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-10-12days on market $115,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-10-11days on market $115,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-10-10days on market $115,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-10-09days on market $115,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-10-08days on market $115,000 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-10-07days on market $115,000 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-10-06days on market $115,000 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-10-05days on market $115,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $115,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-10-04days on market $115,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-10-02days on market $115,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-10-01days on market $115,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-09-30days on market $115,000 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-09-29days on market $115,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $115,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $115,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $115,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $115,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $115,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $115,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $115,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $115,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $115,000 Active 86 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 14% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $20,633
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,882
- − Property taxes
- −$1,575
- − Insurance
- −$2,350
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,651
- − Management
- −$1,651
- − Depreciation
- −$3,055
- Taxable income
- $4,471
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,073
- After-tax cash flow
- $4,695/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $6,720–$20,160 screening
This home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Replace the kitchen countertops — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
- Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
- Both Upgrade the kitchen appliances — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Waverly Elementary
High
Linden High
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Linden Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0621810
- Math proficiency
- 32% ▬ 0.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 40% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $60,534
- Composite
- 34.76/100
- National rank
- #10030
- State rank
- #806 of 1400 in CA
D
Composite livability gradescore 57/100
Livability — Stockton
- Score
- 57/100
- State rank
- #734
- US rank
- #21638
Category grades
Amenities A-
Commute F
Cost of living F
Crime F
Employment C-
Housing A+
Health & safety A
User ratings F
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- San Joaquin · 796,965 people
- City population
- 332,006
- Metro
- Stockton-Lodi, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 26,032
- Household income
- $68,189
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 12% of renters
Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 796,965 people
- By 2030
- 828,849 · +4.0%
- By 2040
- 885,611 · +11.1%
- By 2050
- 929,798 · +16.7%
- By 2075
- 994,578 · +24.8%
- By 2100
- 971,291 · +21.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 65% Two or more races 23% White 23% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 61%
- Languages at home
- 46% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -16.84%
- Current HPI
- 1200.44
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
||
| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
||
| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
|
||
| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
|
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-05-18 Listed $125,000 BAREIS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…