413 Main · North La Junta, CO 81050

$99,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 206 Days on market

Built 1964 0.47 ac lot Est $162k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A lot of potential with this 3 bedroom house, 1 car garage and a fenced yard located in a Country Subdivision with the convenience of City Amenities.

Key facts

• Fenced area
• Garage type building
• Half an acre

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• LARGE ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• FENCED AREA
• GARAGE TYPE BUILDING
• STORAGE SHED ATTACHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Detached garage; Total of 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; Frame construction with wood siding; Composition roof
• Construction: Frame construction; Wood siding; Composition roof; Basement
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Corner, irregular lot; Yard shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Master bedroom on main floor; Wood-burning freestanding fireplace; Basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#264 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• East Otero School District No. R1 (town): math 7% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #83 of 86 in CO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $100k implies a 165% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.75%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,784
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 N Main St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,650 (+10%)	13mo	$179,000	$108	63
206 Melon	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-6%)	6mo	$261,500	$186	58
217 Olive Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+14%)	19mo	$120,000	$70	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,175
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $29,663
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81050

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $383/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $753

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 204 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 203 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 201 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,500 Active 200 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,500 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,500 Active 191 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 190 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 189 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 188 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 187 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $99,500
17. 2025-11-24
    listed $108,000 Active
18. 2018-08-21
    soldstatus $37,501 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    A lot of potential with this 3 bedroom house, 1 car garage and a fenced yard located in a Country Subdivision with the convenience of City Amenities.

19. 2018-07-19
    listed $30,000 149-char remark

    Show marketing remark (149 chars)

    A lot of potential with this 3 bedroom house, 1 car garage and a fenced yard located in a Country Subdivision with the convenience of City Amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $383 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $547 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 42.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$383
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,111
• − Management: −$1,111
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $2,320
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$557
• After-tax cash flow: $3,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Otero School District No. R1
• NCES district ID: 0805130
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,475
• Composite: 13.36/100
• National rank: #9534
• State rank: #83 of 86 in CO

Livability — North La Junta

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #264
• US rank: #19718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North La Junta, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,774

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,363 people
• By 2030: 16,776 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 15,534 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 14,467 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 12,054 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 9,392 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.5% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.44%
• Current HPI: 232.984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+231.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $99,500 PARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $108,000 PARMLS
• 2018-08-21 Sold (MLS) $37,501 PARMLS
• 2018-07-19 Listed $30,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $383 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.