11427 W Stagecoach Rd · Arizona City, AZ 85123

$189,750

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2001 7,875 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Totally remodeled from head to toe 5 bedrooms with 2 baths. Over 2,000 sq. ft. of spacious living with family room plus a comfy great room sporting all new roof, new windows, painted inside and out, and nicely landscaped with carport, front, back & side awnings. Dreamy kitchen with tons of counter space and cabinets, center island, all appliances even the refrigerator is included. Granite counters kitchen. New wood like vinyl flooring in living room and baths, carpet in bedrooms. Master bath has double vanities, granite counters Vaulted ceiling throughout even in all the bedrooms. Huge laundry room with outside entrance so you could have that mud room you have been wanting. Corner lot allows for ample parking.

Key facts

• Non hoa neighborhood
• Corner lot
• 7,875 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NON HOA NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; RV access/parking; 2-car carport
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone back yard; County-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Granite counters; Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bath in primary bedroom; Dual-pane windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $173k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vista Grande High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #279 of 381 statewide, top 73%, 1,790 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($173k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,672 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,455
• Equity at exit: $28,292

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $8,476
• Equity at exit: $16,406

Cash invested: $53,130 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85123

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$995
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,846/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,660

Max offer price $189,750

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $386	-5% $321	+0% $255	+5% $190	+10% $124
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $177	+0% $255	+5% $334	+10% $412
Rate	-1.0pp $351	-0.5pp $304	base $255	+0.5pp $206	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,438
• Closing costs: $5,692
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9321 W Hillcrest Pl Arizona City, AZ	4.0	2.0	1420	$1,750	$1.23	2d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-20
   price $189,750
3. 2026-05-19
   status Active
4. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-06
   status Active
6. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-10
   status Active
8. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
9. 2025-12-03
   price $210,840
10. 2025-11-03
    price $230,920
11. 2025-09-16
    listed $251,000 Active
12. 2024-10-25
    historical
13. 2024-05-14
    price $264,900
14. 2024-04-27
    price $269,900
15. 2024-04-08
    price $274,900
16. 2023-12-01
    price $279,900
17. 2023-11-07
    price $284,900
18. 2023-10-24
    listed $289,900 Active
19. 2022-08-17
    soldstatus $290,000 Closed 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Totally remodeled from head to toe 5 bedrooms with 2 baths. Over 2,000 sq. ft. of spacious living with family room plus a comfy great room sporting all new roof, new windows, painted inside and out, and nicely landscaped with carport, front, back & side awnings. Dreamy kitchen with tons of counter space and cabinets, center island, all appliances even the refrigerator is included. Granite counters kitchen. New wood like vinyl flooring in living room and baths, carpet in bedrooms. Master bath has double vanities, granite counters Vaulted ceiling throughout even in all the bedrooms. Huge laundry room with outside entrance so you could have that mud room you have been wanting. Corner lot allows for ample parking.

20. 2022-07-15
    status Pending 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Totally remodeled from head to toe 5 bedrooms with 2 baths. Over 2,000 sq. ft. of spacious living with family room plus a comfy great room sporting all new roof, new windows, painted inside and out, and nicely landscaped with carport, front, back & side awnings. Dreamy kitchen with tons of counter space and cabinets, center island, all appliances even the refrigerator is included. Granite counters kitchen. New wood like vinyl flooring in living room and baths, carpet in bedrooms. Master bath has double vanities, granite counters Vaulted ceiling throughout even in all the bedrooms. Huge laundry room with outside entrance so you could have that mud room you have been wanting. Corner lot allows for ample parking.

21. 2022-07-05
    listed $285,000 Active 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Totally remodeled from head to toe 5 bedrooms with 2 baths. Over 2,000 sq. ft. of spacious living with family room plus a comfy great room sporting all new roof, new windows, painted inside and out, and nicely landscaped with carport, front, back & side awnings. Dreamy kitchen with tons of counter space and cabinets, center island, all appliances even the refrigerator is included. Granite counters kitchen. New wood like vinyl flooring in living room and baths, carpet in bedrooms. Master bath has double vanities, granite counters Vaulted ceiling throughout even in all the bedrooms. Huge laundry room with outside entrance so you could have that mud room you have been wanting. Corner lot allows for ample parking.

22. 2022-03-01
    soldstatus $89,000
23. 2022-02-28
    soldstatus $89,000 Closed
24. 2022-02-10
    status Pending
25. 2022-02-08
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,629
• − Property taxes: −$2,846
• − Insurance: −$949
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,904
• − Management: −$1,904
• − Depreciation: −$5,520
• Taxable income: $46
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11
• After-tax cash flow: $3,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arizona City

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #22768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 10,003
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,003
• Household income: $69,137
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.30%
• Current HPI: 283.5405
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+113.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $189,750 ARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $210,840 ARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $230,920 ARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $251,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-05-14 Price Changed $264,900 ARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Price Changed $269,900 ARMLS
• 2024-04-08 Price Changed $274,900 ARMLS
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $279,900 ARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Price Changed $284,900 ARMLS
• 2023-10-24 Listed $289,900 ARMLS
• 2022-08-17 Sold (MLS) $290,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-07-05 Listed $285,000 ARMLS
• 2022-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-28 Sold (MLS) $89,000 ARMLS
• 2022-02-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-02-08 Listed $89,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $288 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.