1249 E Oakdale Cir · Freeland, MI 48623

$309,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1997 0.27 ac lot $203/sqft · 39% above area Est $222k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A fabulous Freeland find! 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom ranch located on a quiet cut-de-sac. Large living room with gas log fireplace and patio door leading to a covered patio to enjoy quiet evenings. 1st floor laundry, newer water heater, shed, full basement, beautiful kitchen with large eating area and loads of cupboards, new sink and pantry. Don't miss this great home!

Key facts

• Large eating area
• Covered patio
• Full basement

Tags

• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• COVERED PATIO
• 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEWER WATER HEATER
• FULL BASEMENT
• LARGE EATING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: OAKDALE ESTATES; Lot dimensions approximately 78 x 148 (0.27 acres); Located on Dawn / Dawn cross street
• Financial info: Not specified
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic opener; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built on a block foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Shed(s); Cul-de-sac lot; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet; Walk-in closets; Living room gas fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $531 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.2% in Freeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#230 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Freeland Community School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #46 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,000 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.34%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,150
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: 46.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
571 E Dawn Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+5%)	21mo	$233,600	$145	67
942 Wheelock St	0.38mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,532 (+0%)	11mo	$200,000	$131	66
1141 N Dawn Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,624 (+6%)	8mo	$220,000	$135	66
8081 Webster Rd	0.64mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,536 (+0%)	0mo	$220,000	$143	62
400 S Seventh St	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+1%)	14mo	$236,900	$153	61
9855 Elmwood Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-6%)	1mo	$205,000	$142	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-16,546
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $28,558
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48623

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,018/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $309,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8441 Cottonwood Dr Freeland, MI	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,000	$1.88	44d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $309,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on marketlisting id $309,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   remarks 371-char remark
8. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on marketlisting id $309,900 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $325,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $325,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $325,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $325,000 Active 357-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,895 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,877/yr (+$156/mo · 184.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$1,018
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable income: $1,298
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$311
• After-tax cash flow: $6,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Freeland Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2615060
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $70,875
• Composite: 50.98/100
• National rank: #1779
• State rank: #46 of 540 in MI

Livability — Freeland

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #5824

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeland, MI
• City population: 15,126
• Population (ZIP): 15,126

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.02%
• Current HPI: 213.8908
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $309,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-13 Listed $309,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,018 · -71.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.