3223 Lincoln Ave · Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN 37218

$295,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1958 0.41 ac lot Est $530k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investors!!! This is a tear-down—home is a shell and entry is not recommended. Value is in the land only. Located on a HOT, rapidly developing street, this is a prime opportunity for a cash buyer to build a new home. Convenient to shopping, golf, parks, and downtown Nashville. Cash only. Do not enter the home. No HOA.

Key facts

• Convenient to golf
• Convenient to parks
• Prime opportunity

Tags

• RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STREET
• PRIME OPPORTUNITY
• CONVENIENT TO SHOPPING
• CONVENIENT TO GOLF
• CONVENIENT TO PARKS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway parking; One covered parking space (one total garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Concrete flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Electric oven; Electric range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $657 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $277k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.9% in Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Davidson County (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #126 of 139 in TN (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cumberland Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #926 of 952 statewide, top 100%, 438 students, 0% FRL); Whites Creek High (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #294 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 587 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 66% district-wide (66 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 209 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,873 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (4,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,170/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 532% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $194k; list at $295k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.55%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $530,000
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2301 Alpine Ave	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,884 (-6%)	1mo	$500,000	$265	74
2401 Stivers St	0.10mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,144 (+7%)	4mo	$649,999	$303	68
3229 Curtis St	0.14mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,263 (+13%)	7mo	$599,999	$265	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-15,305
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $4,387
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37218

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,170 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,122/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$666
• Net cashflow: $657

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,338

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3212A Lincoln Ave Nashville, TN	4.0	3.0	1871	$2,895	$1.55	8d	1	0.08mi
2131 Goodrich Ave Unit 1051732P Nashville, TN	4.0	4.5	2206	$7,610	$3.45	2d	1	0.33mi
970 Youngs Ln Unit A Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	1772	$4,200	$2.37	17d	1	1.08mi
968 Youngs Ln Unit 1051746P Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	1711	$6,192	$3.62	3d	1	1.10mi
966 Youngs Ln Unit 1051745P Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	1754	$7,110	$4.05	8d	1	1.10mi
960 Youngs Ln Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	1920	$3,000	$1.56	11d	1	1.10mi
2223 24th Ave N Nashville, TN	4.0	3.0	1981	$2,999	$1.51	17d	1	1.16mi
2317 23rd Ave N Nashville, TN	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,650	$1.46	24d	1	1.24mi
1732 Kellow St Nashville, TN	4.0	3.0	1800	$3,200	$1.78	24d	1	1.27mi
2211 18th Ave N Nashville, TN	5.0	4.0	2637	$3,300	$1.25	3d	1	1.31mi
2133 24th Ave N Unit 1051710P Nashville, TN	4.0	4.0	1776	$5,718	$3.22	3d	1	1.32mi
1726 Simpkins St Nashville, TN	4.0	3.5	2286	$3,500	$1.53	24d	1	1.39mi
4295 Ashland City Hwy Nashville, TN	4.0	3.0	2586	$2,950	$1.14	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $295,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $295,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $295,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $295,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-04-02
   listed $295,000 Active
6. 2026-02-20
   historical
7. 2026-02-01
   status Active
8. 2026-01-31
   historical
9. 2025-12-30
   listed $329,900 Active
10. 2025-12-11
    historical
11. 2025-11-13
    price $350,000
12. 2025-09-26
    price $400,000
13. 2025-06-03
    price $550,000
14. 2025-04-28
    listed $700,000 Active
15. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus $193,750
16. 1986-09-01
    soldstatus $32,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,122 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,122 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$2,122
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,043
• − Management: −$3,043
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable income: $3,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$779
• After-tax cash flow: $7,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County
• NCES district ID: 4703180
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,667
• Composite: 14.03/100
• National rank: #9472
• State rank: #126 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance), TN
• County: Davidson County · 680,067 people
• City population: 677,595
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 15,292
• Household income: $61,919
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 532.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 808,568 people
• By 2030: 874,489 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 1,009,046 · +24.8%
• By 2050: 1,147,294 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 1,475,439 · +82.5%
• By 2100: 1,714,101 · +112.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% White 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+27.4) · D 62.7% · R 35.3% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.5pp toward D · 2008: 21.0pp · 2024: 27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+27.4 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+26.0 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.30%
• Current HPI: 315.1728
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.70%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+807.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $295,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Listed $329,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-11 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $350,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $400,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Price Changed $550,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-28 Listed $700,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $193,750 Public Records
• 1986-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,122 · +27.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.