5706 Tails Creek Rd · Ellijay, GA 30540

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1995

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Little love phones for sale as is. We& apos; ve been living in it comfortable for 4 years. It& apos; s had some updates and need some updates. Still other than that. It& apos; s a good home fencing backyard. Well water the septic system etc

Key facts

• Fencing backyard
• Well water
• Septic system

Tags

• FENCING BACKYARD
• WELL WATER
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 1.8% in Ellijay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#85 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilmer County (rural): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #56 of 174 in GA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary (math 47% / reading 29%, grade F, #469 of 1,228 statewide, top 38%, 668 students, 67% FRL); Clear Creek Middle School (math 39% / reading 39%, grade F, #155 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 917 students, 63% FRL); Gilmer High School (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #181 of 424 statewide, top 43%, 1,174 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 979 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 176 units permitted in Gilmer County in 2024 (74 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gilmer County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.86%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,952
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
530 Dover Chapel Ter	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,614 (-1%)	9mo	$475,000	$294	63
103 Banjo Way	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-3%)	10mo	$75,000	$48	56
103 Banjo Way #38	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-3%)	10mo	$75,000	$48	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,339
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-19,951
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30540

• Home prices YoY: -11.0%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,407/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,868

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $172	+0% $104	+5% $36	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $25	+0% $104	+5% $183	+10% $262
Rate	-1.0pp $225	-0.5pp $165	base $104	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $-21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
569 Dover Chapel Rd Ellijay, GA	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,000	$1.60	45d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $240,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $240,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 240-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $240,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,407 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,208 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$801/yr (+$67/mo · 56.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,407
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$2,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$689
• After-tax cash flow: $1,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer County
• NCES district ID: 1302340
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,473
• Composite: 31.53/100
• National rank: #5961
• State rank: #56 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ellijay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #85
• US rank: #7087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,145

Population outlook (Gilmer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,466 people
• By 2030: 32,199 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 33,034 · +5.0%
• By 2050: 33,266 · +5.7%
• By 2075: 33,686 · +7.1%
• By 2100: 33,792 · +7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gilmer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.6) · D 18.5% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.0pp · 2024: -62.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.6 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+66.9 2012: R+63.3 2008: R+52.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.49%
• Current HPI: 270.796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+281.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $240,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $255,000 GAMLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $268,999 GAMLS
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $269,500 GAMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $274,900 GAMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $289,999 NEGBOR
• 2022-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) $225,000 GAMLS
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) $225,000 NEGBOR
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) $225,000 FMLS
• 2022-03-25 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-03-25 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-03-25 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2022-03-22 Price Changed $250,000 NEGBOR
• 2022-03-22 Price Changed $250,000 FMLS
• 2022-03-22 Price Changed $250,000 GAMLS
• 2022-03-08 Listed $285,000 GAMLS
• 2022-03-08 Listed $285,000 FMLS
• 2022-03-07 Listed $285,000 NEGBOR
• 2021-12-28 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2021-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-10 Price Changed $318,000 GAMLS
• 2021-12-03 Listed $318,000 NEGBOR
• 2021-12-03 Listed $325,000 GAMLS
• 2012-01-31 Sold (MLS) $28,000 NEGBOR
• 2012-01-27 Sold (MLS) $28,000 GAMLS
• 2011-09-16 Listed $39,900 NEGBOR
• 2011-09-15 Sold (MLS) $29,100 FMLS
• 2011-03-18 Listed $63,000 FMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,407 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.