949 Philadelphia St · Covington, KY 41011

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

2,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Outside Freshly Painted*Newer Roof*Lg Rooms*Nothing Is Warranted*Zoned Multi-family And Urban Residential Historic Preservation Overlay

Key facts

• 2,500 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Three or more levels; Existing structure
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Vinyl window frames; Membrane roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (approx. 15 x 15); Bedroom 2 (approx. 15 x 15); Bedroom 3 (approx. 15 x 15); Bedroom 4 (approx. 15 x 15)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Electric range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Glenn O Swing Elementary (math 29% / reading 50%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 407 students, 78% FRL); Holmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #211 of 217 statewide, top 97%, 656 students, 84% FRL); Holmes High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #227 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 878 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 81% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,006/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1488% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $200k implies a 1328% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.85%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $544,824
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
937 York St	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,499 (-5%)	7mo	$220,000	$88	83
301 Orchard St	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,717 (+3%)	2mo	$640,000	$236	74
809 Philadelphia St	0.22mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,529 (-4%)	3mo	$385,000	$152	72
814 Greer St	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,370 (-10%)	1mo	$490,000	$207	65
515 W 9th St	0.11mi	4/4.0	3,022 (+15%)	3mo	$495,000	$164	59
1118 Holman Ave	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,302 (-12%)	2mo	$560,000	$243	57
1125 Banklick St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,242 (-15%)	0mo	$500,000	$223	55
636 Bakewell St	0.33mi	4/4.0	2,264 (-14%)	1mo	$535,000	$236	52
1527 Holman St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,430 (-8%)	7mo	$315,000	$130	52
1053 Montague Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,444 (-7%)	3mo	$490,000	$200	50
25 W 15th St	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,947 (+12%)	1mo	$307,000	$104	49
1054 Emerson Rd	0.68mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,505 (-5%)	2mo	$749,900	$299	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $37,060
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $109,884
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41011

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,002/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $1,159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,538

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,272	-5% $1,216	+0% $1,159	+5% $1,103	+10% $1,046
Rent	-10% $922	-5% $1,041	+0% $1,159	+5% $1,278	+10% $1,397
Rate	-1.0pp $1,260	-0.5pp $1,210	base $1,159	+0.5pp $1,107	+1.0pp $1,055

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1205 Lee St Unit 3 Covington, KY	3.0	2.5	1850	$3,000	$1.62	24d	1	0.22mi
1170 Grays Peak Covington, KY	3.0	3.5	2808	$3,950	$1.41	2d	1	0.36mi
1927 Scott St Apt 1 Covington, KY	3.0	2.0	1865	$2,100	$1.13	20d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2002-02-28
   historical
4. 2001-08-22
   listed $63,900
5. 2001-05-30
   soldstatus $14,000 135-char remark

   Show marketing remark (135 chars)

   Outside Freshly Painted*Newer Roof*Lg Rooms*Nothing Is Warranted*Zoned Multi-family And Urban Residential Historic Preservation Overlay

6. 2000-03-07
   listed $19,900 135-char remark

   Show marketing remark (135 chars)

   Outside Freshly Painted*Newer Roof*Lg Rooms*Nothing Is Warranted*Zoned Multi-family And Urban Residential Historic Preservation Overlay

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,002 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,719 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$717/yr (+$60/mo · 71.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,002
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,885
• − Management: −$2,885
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $11,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,707
• After-tax cash flow: $11,203/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,981
• Household income: $69,970
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.20%
• Current HPI: 237.0869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+904.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NKMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,900 NKMLS
• 2002-02-28 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2001-08-22 Listed $63,900 NKMLS
• 2001-05-30 Sold (MLS) $14,000 NKMLS
• 2000-03-07 Listed $19,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,002 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.