20 Connor Ln · Riverside, TX 77320

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,297 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 365 Days on market

Built 1970 0.50 ac lot $115/sqft · 8% below area Est $163k · 9% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 3/1.5 home in desirable Riverside Lakeland. Community offers private locked boat ramp on Bethy Creek and easy access to the Trinity River and the main body of Lake Livingston, if desired. Home will need a little TLC, but tons of potential. Listing is for home and 3 total lots, but 3 additional lots are also for sale by same owner on MLS 87451941. (Total with all lots would be 1.2 acres.) Home features large living/dining area and updated kitchen, unique front and back porch sitting areas and a large fenced yard with plenty of room for fence expansion. 35x20 carport, with 20x15 of that being an enclosed, locking workshop. Secondary storage building in back. With the right amount of tree pruning and removal, home could have water view. Please note: Any rental must be for a period of 6 months or longer.

Key facts

• Large fenced yard
• Updated kitchen
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE LOCKED BOAT RAMP
• EASY ACCESS TO TRINITY RIVER
• LARGE LIVING DINING AREA
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UNIQUE FRONT AND BACK PORCH
• LARGE FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.4% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,150 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Huntsville ISD (town): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #621 of 826 in TX (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 518 active listings in the ZIP; 527 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,842
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -8.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
266 Lakeland Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,380 (+6%)	16mo	$105,000	$76	63
7 Sowell Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-9%)	21mo	$95,000	$81	60
19 Lakeshore Ln	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,344 (+4%)	9mo	$249,999	$186	52
85 Hill Top Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,163 (-10%)	5mo	$179,000	$154	49
106 Hill Top Rd	0.56mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,440 (+11%)	23mo	$145,000	$101	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-14,822
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,218
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77320

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 518
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,569 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,580/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $190	+0% $148	+5% $106	+10% $64
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $86	+0% $148	+5% $210	+10% $272
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $186	base $148	+0.5pp $110	+1.0pp $70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 365 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 364 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 363 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 362 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 361 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 359 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 358 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 356 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 355 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 354 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 353 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 348 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 347 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 346 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 345 DOM
18. 2026-04-18
    price $154,000 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Cute 3/1.5 home in desirable Riverside Lakeland. Community offers private locked boat ramp on Bethy Creek and easy access to the Trinity River and the main body of Lake Livingston, if desired. Home will need a little TLC, but tons of potential. Listing is for home and 3 total lots, but 3 additional lots are also for sale by same owner on MLS 87451941. (Total with all lots would be 1.2 acres.) Home features large living/dining area and updated kitchen, unique front and back porch sitting areas and a large fenced yard with plenty of room for fence expansion. 35x20 carport, with 20x15 of that being an enclosed, locking workshop. Secondary storage building in back. With the right amount of tree pruning and removal, home could have water view. Please note: Any rental must be for a period of 6 months or longer.

19. 2026-03-30
    price $160,000 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Cute 3/1.5 home in desirable Riverside Lakeland. Community offers private locked boat ramp on Bethy Creek and easy access to the Trinity River and the main body of Lake Livingston, if desired. Home will need a little TLC, but tons of potential. Listing is for home and 3 total lots, but 3 additional lots are also for sale by same owner on MLS 87451941. (Total with all lots would be 1.2 acres.) Home features large living/dining area and updated kitchen, unique front and back porch sitting areas and a large fenced yard with plenty of room for fence expansion. 35x20 carport, with 20x15 of that being an enclosed, locking workshop. Secondary storage building in back. With the right amount of tree pruning and removal, home could have water view. Please note: Any rental must be for a period of 6 months or longer.

20. 2025-09-29
    price $185,000 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Cute 3/1.5 home in desirable Riverside Lakeland. Community offers private locked boat ramp on Bethy Creek and easy access to the Trinity River and the main body of Lake Livingston, if desired. Home will need a little TLC, but tons of potential. Listing is for home and 3 total lots, but 3 additional lots are also for sale by same owner on MLS 87451941. (Total with all lots would be 1.2 acres.) Home features large living/dining area and updated kitchen, unique front and back porch sitting areas and a large fenced yard with plenty of room for fence expansion. 35x20 carport, with 20x15 of that being an enclosed, locking workshop. Secondary storage building in back. With the right amount of tree pruning and removal, home could have water view. Please note: Any rental must be for a period of 6 months or longer.

21. 2025-06-19
    listed $205,000 Active 823-char remark

    Show marketing remark (823 chars)

    Cute 3/1.5 home in desirable Riverside Lakeland. Community offers private locked boat ramp on Bethy Creek and easy access to the Trinity River and the main body of Lake Livingston, if desired. Home will need a little TLC, but tons of potential. Listing is for home and 3 total lots, but 3 additional lots are also for sale by same owner on MLS 87451941. (Total with all lots would be 1.2 acres.) Home features large living/dining area and updated kitchen, unique front and back porch sitting areas and a large fenced yard with plenty of room for fence expansion. 35x20 carport, with 20x15 of that being an enclosed, locking workshop. Secondary storage building in back. With the right amount of tree pruning and removal, home could have water view. Please note: Any rental must be for a period of 6 months or longer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,580 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$146/yr (+$12/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,580
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,506
• − Management: −$1,506
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
• After-tax cash flow: $1,918/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huntsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824030
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,597
• Composite: 25.71/100
• National rank: #7383
• State rank: #621 of 826 in TX

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1150
• US rank: #20204

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walker County · 75,669 people
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,152
• Household income: $55,663
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1030.0

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 77,602 people
• By 2030: 82,007 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 90,436 · +16.5%
• By 2050: 100,240 · +29.2%
• By 2075: 123,667 · +59.4%
• By 2100: 135,073 · +74.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.0) · D 29.6% · R 69.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+28.4 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.48%
• Current HPI: 190.199
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Huntsville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $154,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $205,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,580 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.