127 Hillside Dr · Copake Lake, NY 12521

$310,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1940 1.40 ac lot $473/sqft · 32% above area Est $234k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

For Those Who Search -- for that secluded cabin in the woods. Well, here it is! AND it has deeded Copake Lake rights. The original section of this home was built in 1940 -- the real deal. Additions followed. Open living room/ galley kitchen/ pull down kitchen table/ bed room. Additional room on the lower walk-out level. Deck and hot tub adds to the amenities. Copake Lake is a full motor boat lake of approximately 425 acres. Copake Country Club is right here too. Close to so many attractions - skiing, concerts, farm-to-table restaurants, farmer markets, hiking, zip line and the list goes on. Approximately 2 hours from NYC and pretty much equal distance between Hudson, NY and Great Barrington, MA. It would be our honor to show you this Copake Lake beauty. Covid precautions taken.

Key facts

• 1.4 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 1.4 acres; Dirt road frontage (unimproved); Has view; Directions available to property

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; Outside parking
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service; Electricity connected; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Cabin-style single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Residential property
• Construction: Log and wood siding construction; Other construction materials; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Partially finished basement with crawl space; Built as a cabin
• Exterior features: Private yard; Garden; Back yard; Landscaped grounds; Secluded setting; On golf course or near golf course; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Wood stove; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in basement and separate laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $310k).
• Recommended offer: $301k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.4% in Copake Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#841 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Taconic Hills Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #335 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $310k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.24%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,978
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: 32.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $239,005
• Equity at exit: $279,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.47×
• Total profit: $648,563
• Equity at exit: $602,262

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12521

• Home prices YoY: 23.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,922 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,898/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$824
• Net cashflow: $1,102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,527

Max offer price $310,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $310,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $310,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $310,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,000 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    price $310,000 1283-char remark
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $325,000 Active 1283-char remark
19. 2021-09-08
    soldstatus $205,000
20. 2021-08-31
    soldstatus $200,000 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    For Those Who Search -- for that secluded cabin in the woods. Well, here it is! AND it has deeded Copake Lake rights. The original section of this home was built in 1940 -- the real deal. Additions followed. Open living room/ galley kitchen/ pull down kitchen table/ bed room. Additional room on the lower walk-out level. Deck and hot tub adds to the amenities. Copake Lake is a full motor boat lake of approximately 425 acres. Copake Country Club is right here too. Close to so many attractions - skiing, concerts, farm-to-table restaurants, farmer markets, hiking, zip line and the list goes on. Approximately 2 hours from NYC and pretty much equal distance between Hudson, NY and Great Barrington, MA. It would be our honor to show you this Copake Lake beauty. Covid precautions taken.

21. 2021-04-11
    listed $235,000 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    For Those Who Search -- for that secluded cabin in the woods. Well, here it is! AND it has deeded Copake Lake rights. The original section of this home was built in 1940 -- the real deal. Additions followed. Open living room/ galley kitchen/ pull down kitchen table/ bed room. Additional room on the lower walk-out level. Deck and hot tub adds to the amenities. Copake Lake is a full motor boat lake of approximately 425 acres. Copake Country Club is right here too. Close to so many attractions - skiing, concerts, farm-to-table restaurants, farmer markets, hiking, zip line and the list goes on. Approximately 2 hours from NYC and pretty much equal distance between Hudson, NY and Great Barrington, MA. It would be our honor to show you this Copake Lake beauty. Covid precautions taken.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,898 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,068 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,171/yr (+$98/mo · 40.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$2,898
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,765
• − Management: −$3,765
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable income: $8,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,089
• After-tax cash flow: $11,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taconic Hills Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628620
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $57,329
• Composite: 45.16/100
• National rank: #2676
• State rank: #335 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copake Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #841
• US rank: #16329

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Copake Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,874

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 83.58%
• Current HPI: 441.0272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+31.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $310,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $325,000 HVCRMLS
• 2021-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-31 Sold (MLS) $200,000 HVCRMLS
• 2021-04-11 Listed $235,000 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,898 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.