120 Starpacker Ln · Jarrell, TX 76537

$214,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $153/sqft · 16% below area Est $257k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kitson - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-243/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 915 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $185,513 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,305
• List price: $214,999
• Delta: -16.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
132 Star Packer Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	0mo	$211,499	$150	98
124 Star Packer Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	2mo	$209,999	$148	97
137 Starpacker Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	2mo	$209,999	$148	95
149 Starpacker Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	2mo	$204,999	$145	94
153 Starpacker Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	2mo	$209,999	$148	94
229 Brannigan Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-0%)	0mo	$236,990	$169	93
525 Old Western Pass	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+0%)	0mo	$230,190	$163	93
140 Star Packer Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	0mo	$201,999	$159	82
512 Old Western Pass	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+8%)	0mo	$230,990	$152	82
541 Old Western Pass	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+8%)	1mo	$198,806	$131	79
128 Star Packer Ln	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	1mo	$219,999	$137	70
125 Hatari Trl	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+6%)	0mo	$254,990	$170	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-41,538
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-58,729
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 83 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $249,990 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 147 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 915
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $212,068

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $54	+0% $-20	+5% $-95	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-167	-5% $-94	+0% $-20	+5% $53	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $34	base $-20	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,500	$1.06	32d	1	0.06mi
137 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	9d	1	0.06mi
149 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	9d	1	0.07mi
153 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	16d	1	0.08mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	46d	1	0.10mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	57d	1	0.13mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	51d	1	0.15mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	52d	1	0.19mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$1,830	$0.99	13d	1	0.19mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	9d	1	0.23mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	9d	1	0.24mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	93d	1	0.25mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	65d	1	0.28mi
125 Paradise Canyon Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,095	$1.61	31d	1	0.31mi
216 The Duke Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,700	$1.20	30d	1	0.44mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	67d	1	0.83mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	93d	1	0.85mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,799	$1.20	41d	1	0.95mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	68d	1	0.98mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	65d	1	0.98mi
516 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,850	$1.05	21d	1	1.00mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	93d	1	1.07mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	93d	1	1.12mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	9d	1	1.30mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	53d	1	1.31mi
744 Xanadu Dr Unit 53K Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1764	$1,750	$0.99	18d	1	1.34mi
167 McNamara Ct Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,795	$1.42	18d	1	1.34mi
504 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,895	$1.18	67d	1	1.41mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	93d	1	1.42mi
508 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	93d	1	1.42mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	93d	1	1.42mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	73d	1	1.45mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	67d	1	1.46mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	41d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 120 Starpacker Ln, Jarrell TX 76537Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-06-25
• Financial info: List price $233,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1409

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Kitson plan)

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-07-24
   days on market $214,999 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-07-23
   price $214,999 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-07-23
   days on market $214,499 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-07-22
   days on market $214,499 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-07-21
   days on market $214,499 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-07-20
   pricedays on market $214,499 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-07-18
   days on market $213,999 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-07-18
   days on market $213,999 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-07-16
   days on market $213,999 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-07-15
    days on market $213,999 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-07-14
    days on market $213,999 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-07-13
    days on market $213,999 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-07-13
    days on market $213,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-07-12
    price $213,999 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-07-11
    days on market $214,999 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-07-10
    days on market $214,999 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-07-09
    days on market $214,999 Active 16 DOM
18. 2026-07-07
    days on market $214,999 Active 14 DOM
19. 2026-07-06
    days on market $214,999 Active 13 DOM
20. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $214,999 Active 12 DOM
21. 2026-06-29
    days on market $214,499 Active 11 DOM
22. 2026-06-28
    days on market $214,499 Active 10 DOM
23. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $214,499 Active 9 DOM
24. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on marketlisting id $233,999 Active 8 DOM
25. 2026-06-24
    days on market $209,999 Active 77 DOM
26. 2026-06-22
    days on market $209,999 Active 75 DOM
27. 2026-06-21
    days on market $209,999 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-06-18
    days on market $209,999 Active 71 DOM
29. 2026-06-17
    days on market $209,999 Active 70 DOM
30. 2026-06-16
    days on market $209,999 Active 69 DOM
31. 2026-06-15
    days on market $209,999 Active 68 DOM
32. 2026-06-13
    days on market $209,999 Active 66 DOM
33. 2026-06-09
    days on market $209,999 Active 62 DOM
34. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,999 Active 61 DOM
35. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,999 Active 60 DOM
36. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,999 Active 57 DOM
37. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,999 Active 56 DOM
38. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,999 Active 55 DOM
39. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,999 Active 54 DOM
40. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,999 Active 53 DOM
41. 2026-05-14
    price $235,999 626-char remark
42. 2026-05-11
    price $238,999 626-char remark
43. 2026-04-10
    price $241,999 626-char remark
44. 2026-04-08
    listed $246,990 Active 626-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$3,898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$936
• After-tax cash flow: $692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,045–$21,135 screening

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior appearance. It has a good foundation and structure, and the HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in good condition. The home has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Paint the interior walls — Painting the interior walls can make the home appear more modern and fresh, increasing its resale value. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in the kitchen — New flooring in the kitchen can improve the home's appearance and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install new kitchen cabinets — New kitchen cabinets can improve the home's appearance and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install new bathroom fixtures — New bathroom fixtures can improve the home's appearance and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install new lighting fixtures — New lighting fixtures can improve the home's appearance and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install new window treatments — New window treatments can improve the home's appearance and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install new landscaping — New landscaping can improve the home's appearance and functionality, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 120 Starpacker Ln, Jarrell TX 76537Status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-06-25
• Financial info: List price $233,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1409

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Kitson plan)