4867 Northgate Ct · Trotwood, OH 45416

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1962 8,856 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Trotwood bi-level features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a built-in 2 car garage. The home is in need of some improvements and priced accordingly. Recent updates include high efficiency furnace and water heater, both installed 12/2021. No further information is available regarding the property. Being sold as-is to settle an estate. Seller will make no repairs, will provide no warranties. Please allow up to 120 days to close.

Key facts

• 8,856 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 6.5% in Trotwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,014 in OH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.88%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,448
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3709 Mandalay Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,244 (0%)	6mo	$184,500	$82	84
5108 Malibu Ct	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,174 (-3%)	1mo	$200,000	$92	71
3713 Stormont Rd	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,147 (-4%)	1mo	$247,900	$115	71
4837 Northgate Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,498 (+11%)	11mo	$223,000	$89	69
3776 Denlinger Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,083 (-7%)	23mo	$205,000	$98	59
3502 Darien Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,234 (-0%)	10mo	$213,000	$95	59
20 N Meadow Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5	2,462 (+10%)	12mo	$134,000	$54	40
5400 Heatherton Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,397 (+7%)	21mo	$200,000	$83	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $6,028
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $34,216
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45416

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,519 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$287 /mo · $3,446/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,080

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3668 Castano Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,600	$1.00	2d	1	0.24mi
4246 Redonda Ln Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	43d	1	0.65mi
4916 Copeland Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1515	$1,125	$0.74	11d	1	0.78mi
4724 Stonehedge St Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,445	$1.03	43d	1	1.33mi
5261 Bromwick Dr Dayton, OH	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,595	$0.90	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-01-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-11
   listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,446 · $287/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,446 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$3,446
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,459
• − Management: −$1,459
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,860
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$686
• After-tax cash flow: $3,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Trotwood

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1014
• US rank: #20073

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trotwood, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 19,754
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 5,640
• Household income: $46,174
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 18% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.27%
• Current HPI: 173.5938
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-01-11 Listed $100,000 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,446 · +59.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.