3 Willow Ln · Poinciana, FL 34759

$327,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,635 sqft · Land · 136 Days on market

Built 2026 2,722 sqft lot $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seize the opportunity to own a spacious lot in one of Florida's most sought-after communities! Nestled in a serene setting, this prime location offers access to an array of top-notch amenities, including community pools, fitness centers, parks, and playgrounds. Whether you're looking to build your forever home or invest in a growing area, this lot is a fantastic choice. Don't miss out. Secure your slice of Poinciana today!

Key facts

• 2,722 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $100; Association required (WILLIAM MEDINA); Street lights in community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer connected; Sprinkler meter; No water source listed
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing; New construction; Completed condition
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Adams Homes
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $328k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-674 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $328k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,198 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.81%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-78,468
• Equity at exit: $71,686

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-119,140
• Equity at exit: $69,085

Cash invested: $91,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,918/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-674

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,995

Max offer price $230,389

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,975
• Closing costs: $9,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Zinnia Ln W Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	3d	1	0.10mi
2005 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1669	$1,719	$1.03	3d	1	0.31mi
302 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,240	$1.34	3d	1	0.31mi
2006 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,040	$1.08	3d	1	0.34mi
207 Begonia Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,925	$1.19	23d	1	0.38mi
319 Erie Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,765	$1.35	14d	1	0.39mi
107 Lily Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	23d	1	0.39mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$2,345	$1.56	2d	1	0.42mi
3 Magnolia Blossom Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,995	$1.19	19d	1	0.48mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	14d	1	0.55mi
307 Michigan Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,744	$1.04	14d	1	0.57mi
305 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,000	$1.28	3d	1	0.58mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	3d	1	0.58mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,970	$1.06	3d	1	0.58mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	14d	1	0.61mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,005	$1.08	3d	1	0.61mi
302 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	23d	1	0.61mi
29 Orchid Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,890	$1.13	3d	1	0.62mi
319 Erie Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,815	$1.39	23d	1	0.64mi
149 Conch Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	19d	1	0.65mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	23d	1	0.65mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	3d	1	0.68mi
1932 Michigan Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	2236	$1,779	$0.80	3d	1	0.68mi
1951 Michigan Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1562	$2,060	$1.32	14d	1	0.69mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	23d	1	0.72mi
431 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1764	$1,895	$1.07	3d	1	0.72mi
2140 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,495	$1.20	14d	1	0.73mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	3d	1	0.73mi
2150 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	11d	1	0.74mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	3d	1	0.74mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	3d	1	0.74mi
99 Orchid Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$1,900	$1.11	14d	1	0.75mi
1907 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	23d	1	0.75mi
1912 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1420	$1,995	$1.40	23d	1	0.77mi
446 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,675	$1.26	23d	1	0.78mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	3d	1	0.79mi
922 Centaury Dr Unit 1 Poinciana, FL	3.0	3.0	2166	$1,900	$0.88	14d	1	0.80mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	23d	1	0.80mi
407 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$1,600	$0.86	12d	1	0.80mi
1782 Coriander Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	3d	1	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgym

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $327,900 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $327,900 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $327,900 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $327,900 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $327,900 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $327,900 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $327,900 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $327,900 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $327,900 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $327,900 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $327,900 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $327,900 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $327,900 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    price $327,900
15. 2026-03-30
    price $332,400
16. 2026-02-02
    listed $324,400 Active
17. 2025-05-20
    soldstatus $123,000
18. 2025-05-19
    soldstatus $61,400 Closed 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Seize the opportunity to own a spacious lot in one of Florida's most sought-after communities! Nestled in a serene setting, this prime location offers access to an array of top-notch amenities, including community pools, fitness centers, parks, and playgrounds. Whether you're looking to build your forever home or invest in a growing area, this lot is a fantastic choice. Don't miss out. Secure your slice of Poinciana today!

19. 2025-04-02
    status Pending 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Seize the opportunity to own a spacious lot in one of Florida's most sought-after communities! Nestled in a serene setting, this prime location offers access to an array of top-notch amenities, including community pools, fitness centers, parks, and playgrounds. Whether you're looking to build your forever home or invest in a growing area, this lot is a fantastic choice. Don't miss out. Secure your slice of Poinciana today!

20. 2025-03-10
    listed $61,500 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Seize the opportunity to own a spacious lot in one of Florida's most sought-after communities! Nestled in a serene setting, this prime location offers access to an array of top-notch amenities, including community pools, fitness centers, parks, and playgrounds. Whether you're looking to build your forever home or invest in a growing area, this lot is a fantastic choice. Don't miss out. Secure your slice of Poinciana today!

21. 2012-07-26
    soldstatus $5,000
22. 2011-08-22
    soldstatus $59,800
23. 2006-05-10
    listed $26,900
24. 2005-01-19
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,367
• − Property taxes: −$4,918
• − Insurance: −$1,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,539
• Taxable loss: −$14,073
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,378
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2086.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $327,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $332,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Listed $324,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-19 Sold (MLS) $61,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-10 Listed $61,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $59,800 Public Records
• 2006-05-10 Listed $26,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+26.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $624 · +108.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.