2024T Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$478,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,024 sqft · SingleFamily · 746 Days on market

Excellent condition $237/sqft · at area comps Est $481k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Entry opens to open family room and adjacent home office with French door entry. Kitchen offers an island with built-in seating space and a corner walk-in pantry. Dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a wall of windows. Primary bathroom has French door entry with dual vanities, glass enclosed shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Utility room just off the covered patio. Mud room leads to a rear two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

Key facts

• French door entry
• Dual vanities
• Wall of windows

Tags

• FRENCH DOOR ENTRY
• CORNER WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALL OF WINDOWS
• DUAL VANITIES
• GLASS ENCLOSED SHOWER
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $479k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-860 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 4240 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 746 days — a 12% lower offer ($421k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,034 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 746 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.70%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $481,021
• List price: $478,900
• Delta: -0.44%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1717 Asbury Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,056 (+2%)	0mo	$449,900	$219	89
1708 Palo Duro Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	2,024 (0%)	10mo	$449,900	$222	84
1636 Palo Duro Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	2,024 (0%)	13mo	$502,900	$248	82
2702 Biltmore Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,024 (0%)	18mo	$509,900	$252	80
2704 Biltmore Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,993 (-2%)	18mo	$502,900	$252	77
1608 Palo Duro Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,993 (-2%)	18mo	$476,900	$239	74
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,321 (+15%)	8mo	$464,900	$200	61
2310 Moonstruck Pl	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,299 (+14%)	3mo	$475,000	$207	58
2621 Hardwood Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,050 (+1%)	5mo	$594,000	$290	52
2442 Plumeria Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,305 (+14%)	12mo	$525,000	$228	51
2728 Biltmore Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,273 (+12%)	19mo	$525,000	$231	48
2512 Grinnel Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,196 (+8%)	15mo	$530,000	$241	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-141,435
• Equity at exit: $71,406

10-year hold

• IRR: -62.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.71×
• Total profit: $-228,637
• Equity at exit: $41,407

Cash invested: $134,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 81 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $489,873 ($225/sqft)
• Median days on market: 215 d
• This list price: 37% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 4240
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,511
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$599 /mo · $7,184/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $-860

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,189

Max offer price $354,413

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-529	-5% $-695	+0% $-860	+5% $-1,026	+10% $-1,191
Rent	-10% $-1,105	-5% $-983	+0% $-860	+5% $-738	+10% $-615
Rate	-1.0pp $-619	-0.5pp $-738	base $-860	+0.5pp $-984	+1.0pp $-1,111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,725
• Closing costs: $14,367
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,500	$1.27	92d	1	0.11mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2024	$3,050	$1.51	95d	1	0.11mi
2616 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2846	$3,200	$1.12	1d	1	0.11mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	113d	1	0.13mi
2524 Lafayette Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2807	$3,100	$1.10	2d	1	0.20mi
2429 Plumeria Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2973	$3,200	$1.08	10d	1	0.24mi
1624 Goldenrod Dr Celina, TX	4.0	4.0	2735	$3,300	$1.21	10d	1	1.01mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1930	$2,395	$1.24	65d	1	1.11mi
1129 Beebalm Mews Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$2,595	$1.05	10d	1	1.14mi
1129 Beebalm Mews Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$2,595	$1.05	1d	1	1.14mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	126d	1	1.16mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	159d	1	1.27mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	184d	1	1.30mi
2632 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2359	$3,500	$1.48	0d	1	1.39mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	184d	1	1.41mi
2424 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2261	$2,900	$1.28	35d	1	1.42mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1385	$2,495	$1.80	0d	26	1.42mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	128d	1	1.45mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	165d	1	1.48mi
3257 Sky Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2236	$3,000	$1.34	23d	1	1.49mi
3257 Sky Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2236	$3,000	$1.34	10d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $478,900 Active 746 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $478,900 Active 745 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $478,900 Active 744 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $478,900 Active 743 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $478,900 Active 742 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $472,900 Active 740 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $472,900 Active 739 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $472,900 Active 738 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $472,900 Active 737 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $472,900 Active 736 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $472,900 Active 735 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $472,900 Active 734 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $472,900 Active 733 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $472,900 Active 732 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $472,900 Active 731 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $472,900 Active 730 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $472,900 Active 729 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $472,900 Active 728 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $472,900 Active 727 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $472,900 Active 726 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $472,900 Active 725 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $472,900 Active 724 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $472,900 Active 723 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $472,900 Active 722 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $472,900 Active 721 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $472,900 Active 720 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $472,900 Active 719 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $472,900 Active 718 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $472,900 Active 717 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $472,900 Active 716 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $472,900 Active 715 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $472,900 Active 714 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $472,900 Active 713 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $472,900 Active 712 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $472,900 Active 711 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $472,900 Active 710 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $472,900 Active 709 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $472,900 Active 708 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $472,900 Active 707 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $472,900 Active 706 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $472,900 Active 705 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $472,900 Active 704 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $472,900 Active 703 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $472,900 Active 702 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $472,900 Active 701 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $472,900 Active 700 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $472,900 Active 699 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $472,900 Active 698 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $472,900 Active 697 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $472,900 Active 696 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,826
• − Property taxes: −$7,184
• − Insurance: −$2,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,976
• − Management: −$2,976
• − Depreciation: −$13,932
• Taxable loss: −$19,084
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,580
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $462,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $517,900 Zillow
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $494,900 Zillow
• 2024-10-23 Listed $482,900 Zillow