4132 Chowen Dr · Kathleen, FL 33810

$269,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1983 10,097 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buyer could not qualify -- back on the market! OFFERED AT BELOW RECENT APPRAISED PRICE! CAN CLOSE QUICKLY! All Repairs completed from previous USDA buyer * * Don't let the days on market fool you. .. this house is move in ready * * Situated on one-quarter Acre Lot * * Cul-de-sac street * * Newer -- low maintenance METAL ROOF * * Exterior -- low maintenance Vinyl Siding * * Fresh Interior Paint * * Front door with leaded glass insert * * Bonus Room off the Living Room adds approximately 252 sq feet permitted heated and air conditioned space * * Large Private Fenced In Back Yard, with additional fencing for play area and pets * * Paved Driveway with plenty of room for boat, RV and extra vehicles * * Large Laundry Room * * Two Storage Sheds * * Could qualify for USDA 0% down or FHA 3.5% down loan! Bank owned -- can get response to offer quickly.

Key facts

• New a/c system
• Quartz countertops
• Metal roof

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• NEW A/C SYSTEM
• NEW ELECTRIC WATER HEATER
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Lot size about 0.23 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: Tax information available but excluded per instructions
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built with living area of 1,336 square feet
• Exterior features: Patio; Chain link fencing; Mature landscaping; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-373/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $137k; list at $270k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,219 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-46,235
• Equity at exit: $40,250

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-44,898
• Equity at exit: $23,340

Cash invested: $75,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,912/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,242

Max offer price $264,459

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,488
• Closing costs: $8,098
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3634 Sherertz Rd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,825	$1.42	3d	1	0.52mi
3063 Westmoreland Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,350	$1.34	19d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,950 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,950 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $269,950 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,950 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,950 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,950 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,950 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,950 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,950 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,950 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,950 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,950 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,950 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-19
    status Active
15. 2026-05-06
    price $274,950
16. 2026-03-25
    listed $279,950 Active
17. 2026-02-10
    soldstatus $137,000
18. 2011-12-07
    soldstatus $57,500 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    Buyer could not qualify -- back on the market! OFFERED AT BELOW RECENT APPRAISED PRICE! CAN CLOSE QUICKLY! All Repairs completed from previous USDA buyer * * Don't let the days on market fool you. .. this house is move in ready * * Situated on one-quarter Acre Lot * * Cul-de-sac street * * Newer -- low maintenance METAL ROOF * * Exterior -- low maintenance Vinyl Siding * * Fresh Interior Paint * * Front door with leaded glass insert * * Bonus Room off the Living Room adds approximately 252 sq feet permitted heated and air conditioned space * * Large Private Fenced In Back Yard, with additional fencing for play area and pets * * Paved Driveway with plenty of room for boat, RV and extra vehicles * * Large Laundry Room * * Two Storage Sheds * * Could qualify for USDA 0% down or FHA 3.5% down loan! Bank owned -- can get response to offer quickly.

19. 2010-07-29
    listed $64,900 895-char remark

    Show marketing remark (895 chars)

    Buyer could not qualify -- back on the market! OFFERED AT BELOW RECENT APPRAISED PRICE! CAN CLOSE QUICKLY! All Repairs completed from previous USDA buyer * * Don't let the days on market fool you. .. this house is move in ready * * Situated on one-quarter Acre Lot * * Cul-de-sac street * * Newer -- low maintenance METAL ROOF * * Exterior -- low maintenance Vinyl Siding * * Fresh Interior Paint * * Front door with leaded glass insert * * Bonus Room off the Living Room adds approximately 252 sq feet permitted heated and air conditioned space * * Large Private Fenced In Back Yard, with additional fencing for play area and pets * * Paved Driveway with plenty of room for boat, RV and extra vehicles * * Large Laundry Room * * Two Storage Sheds * * Could qualify for USDA 0% down or FHA 3.5% down loan! Bank owned -- can get response to offer quickly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,912 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,912 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,121
• − Property taxes: −$2,912
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$7,853
• Taxable loss: −$5,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,209
• After-tax cash flow: $836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kathleen, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+323.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $274,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Listed $279,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $137,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-07 Sold (MLS) $57,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-07-29 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,912 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.