20683 Waalew Rd #155 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$184,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $141/sqft · 114% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DBA: Decal: CAV220CA2542899A/B Dealer Number: 91126.Welcome to Los Ranchos, an all-age, active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a brand-new 2026 4-bed, 2-bath home for sale featuring 1,310.40 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Apple Valley, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, hardwood floors, high ceilings, and natural light. The kitchen boasts features like custom cabinetry, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with dual vanities and a spacious walk-in shower. Ad

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Dual vanities
• High ceilings

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• DUAL VANITIES
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 20683 Waalew Rd #155, Apple Valley, CA 92307; Listing provided by Zillow; information deemed reliable but not guaranteed
• Financial info: List price $187,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Claremont)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,310

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home, Plan: Claremont; Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 526 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,559/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 1069% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→4/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.55%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,205
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: 114.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C44	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-1%)	8mo	$95,000	$73	78
20843 Waalew Rd #19	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,344 (+3%)	16mo	$125,000	$93	77
20843 Waalew Rd #12	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+3%)	12mo	$89,999	$67	75
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C79	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-1%)	16mo	$125,000	$96	72
20843 Waalew Unit C4	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-10%)	1mo	$71,000	$60	69
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B87	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+6%)	12mo	$111,500	$80	66
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C94	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,440 (+10%)	12mo	$90,000	$63	65
20843 Waalew C57 Unit C57	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-12%)	3mo	$68,500	$59	64
20683 Waalew SPC B54 Rd Unit B54	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+10%)	9mo	$130,600	$91	63
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C92	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-12%)	5mo	$75,000	$65	62
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B120	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (+9%)	13mo	$90,000	$63	60
20843 Waalew #163	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+11%)	13mo	$89,000	$61	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $76,863
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $232,204
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,559 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,774/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$747
• Net cashflow: $1,534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,617

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20414 Zuni Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	43d	1	1.26mi
16100 Navajo Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1600	$2,450	$1.53	24d	1	1.46mi
16100 Navajo Rd Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1600	$7,900	$4.94	18d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    listed $187,900 Active 1313-char remark
16. 2021-11-25
    historical
17. 2015-01-29
    listed $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 4 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,774
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,416
• − Management: −$3,416
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $16,437
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,945
• After-tax cash flow: $14,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2026 manufactured home in Apple Valley, CA, is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 75. It offers a modern floor plan, hardwood floors, and a spacious suite with dual vanities and a walk-in shower. The home is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves aesthetics.
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality for potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves aesthetics. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and improves functionality for potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B