1188 E Birch Dr · New Kingman-Butler, AZ 86401

$117,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,868 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition $63/sqft · 34% below area Est $178k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained and move-in ready! This home features newer carpet and fresh interior paint, complemented by updated light fixtures throughout The kitchen shines with a new sink and recently replaced refrigerator and gas stove/oven. Both bathrooms have been upgraded with new toilets. Additionally the primary bathroom includes a new shower door. The exterior has been freshly painted for great curb appeal. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious covered patio and large deck, perfectly positioned to face the greenbelt-offering added privacy and open space between neighbors. A single-car carport and storage shed round out this home perfectly. RV parking is available within the conmunity for an additional fee.

Key facts

• Gas stove oven
• New shower door
• Upgraded toilets

Tags

• NEW SINK
• REPLACED REFRIGERATOR
• GAS STOVE OVEN
• UPGRADED TOILETS
• NEW SHOWER DOOR
• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.3% in New Kingman-Butler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingman Unified School District (79598) (town): math 19% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #179 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 960 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,470 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.48%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,157
• List price: $117,000
• Delta: -34.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1296 E Birch Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (-7%)	1mo	$82,500	$47	75
1080 E Huffman Way	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,960 (+5%)	19mo	$235,000	$120	63
1045 E Christianson Ave	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-10%)	12mo	$184,000	$110	59
995 E John Norman Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,693 (-9%)	9mo	$185,000	$109	58
4897 N Edie Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+2%)	21mo	$205,000	$108	58
4805 N Van Nuys Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,683 (-10%)	4mo	$230,000	$137	42
2095 E Suffock Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,037 (+9%)	20mo	$198,900	$98	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,140
• Equity at exit: $17,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $6,969
• Equity at exit: $10,116

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86401

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 960
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,023

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $117,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $117,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $117,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $117,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $117,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $117,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $117,000 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Well-maintained and move-in ready! This home features newer carpet and fresh interior paint, complemented by updated light fixtures throughout The kitchen shines with a new sink and recently replaced refrigerator and gas stove/oven. Both bathrooms have been upgraded with new toilets. Additionally the primary bathroom includes a new shower door. The exterior has been freshly painted for great curb appeal. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious covered patio and large deck, perfectly positioned to face the greenbelt-offering added privacy and open space between neighbors. A single-car carport and storage shed round out this home perfectly. RV parking is available within the conmunity for an additional fee.

18. 2026-04-12
    price $120,000 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Well-maintained and move-in ready! This home features newer carpet and fresh interior paint, complemented by updated light fixtures throughout The kitchen shines with a new sink and recently replaced refrigerator and gas stove/oven. Both bathrooms have been upgraded with new toilets. Additionally the primary bathroom includes a new shower door. The exterior has been freshly painted for great curb appeal. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious covered patio and large deck, perfectly positioned to face the greenbelt-offering added privacy and open space between neighbors. A single-car carport and storage shed round out this home perfectly. RV parking is available within the conmunity for an additional fee.

19. 2026-03-05
    listed $125,000 Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Well-maintained and move-in ready! This home features newer carpet and fresh interior paint, complemented by updated light fixtures throughout The kitchen shines with a new sink and recently replaced refrigerator and gas stove/oven. Both bathrooms have been upgraded with new toilets. Additionally the primary bathroom includes a new shower door. The exterior has been freshly painted for great curb appeal. Enjoy outdoor living on the spacious covered patio and large deck, perfectly positioned to face the greenbelt-offering added privacy and open space between neighbors. A single-car carport and storage shed round out this home perfectly. RV parking is available within the conmunity for an additional fee.

20. 2025-07-24
    listed $127,000 Active
21. 2025-05-10
    price $127,000
22. 2025-01-17
    listed $129,000 Active
23. 2024-10-25
    status Active
24. 2024-10-02
    status Pending
25. 2024-09-06
    price $129,000
26. 2024-03-27
    price $135,000
27. 2024-03-26
    status Active
28. 2024-03-21
    status Pending
29. 2024-02-29
    listed $125,000 Active
30. 2022-08-23
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed
31. 2022-08-12
    status Pending
32. 2022-07-12
    listed $110,000 Active
33. 2020-05-04
    listed $59,900
34. 2020-01-01
    listed $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,363
• − Management: −$1,363
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable income: $2,018
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$484
• After-tax cash flow: $3,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and move-in ready manufactured home features updated interiors and exteriors, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space.
• Both Painting exterior trim — Improves curb appeal and enhances home's value.
• Both Upgrading outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal.
• Both Adding privacy fencing — Improves privacy and outdoor living space.
• Resale Upgrading appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances appeal to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Improves curb appeal and enhances home's value. ↑
• Both Upgrading outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal. ↑
• Both Adding privacy fencing — Improves privacy and outdoor living space. ↑
• Resale Upgrading appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances appeal to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingman Unified School District (79598)
• NCES district ID: 0400295
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,760
• Composite: 17.87/100
• National rank: #9002
• State rank: #179 of 249 in AZ

Livability — New Kingman-Butler

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Kingman-Butler, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 30,124
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 985.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.30%
• Current HPI: 251.8208
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.28%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+74.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $117,000 WARDEX
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $120,000 WARDEX
• 2026-03-05 Listed $125,000 WARDEX
• 2025-07-24 Listed $127,000 WARDEX
• 2025-05-10 Price Changed $127,000 WARDEX
• 2025-01-17 Listed $129,000 WARDEX
• 2024-10-25 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2024-10-02 Pending — WARDEX
• 2024-09-06 Price Changed $129,000 WARDEX
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $135,000 WARDEX
• 2024-03-26 Relisted — WARDEX
• 2024-03-21 Pending — WARDEX
• 2024-02-29 Listed $125,000 WARDEX
• 2022-08-23 Sold (MLS) $110,000 WARDEX
• 2022-08-12 Pending — WARDEX
• 2022-07-12 Listed $110,000 WARDEX
• 2020-05-04 Listed $59,900 WARDEX
• 2020-01-01 Listed $67,000 WARDEX