1920 Jay Ave · McAllen, TX 78504

$182,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 200 Days on market

Built 2003 4,750 sqft lot $138/sqft · 6% below area Est $193k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 story home features 3 bedrooms 2 baths, in a quiet neighborhood, with lots of amenities close by. Nice open floor plan between livingroom and kitchen for all your holiday family gatherings, home does offer split floor plan with 2 bedrooms 1 bath upstairs and primary bedroom with extra room that can be used as an office downstairs, huge backyard for your with family BBQs, perfect for a growing family or anyone craving space and serenity, with lots of comfort, convenience for everyday living!--don't miss your chance to tour and make this home your own!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Split floor plan
• Huge backyard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HUGE BACKYARD
• EXTRA ROOM
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.7% in McAllen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mcallen ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #440 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rayburn El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 492 students, 68% FRL); Morris Middle (math 59% / reading 61%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 1,016 students, 52% FRL); Mcallen H S (math 30% / reading 57%, grade F, #704 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,133 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 898 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $182k implies a 333% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.70%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,485
• List price: $182,000
• Delta: -5.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2128 Mynah Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-4%)	2mo	$222,500	$177	71
2113 Goldcrest Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,361 (+3%)	8mo	$160,000	$118	70
6304 N 21st St	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,486 (+13%)	6mo	$189,900	$128	62
5800 N 26th St	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,302 (-1%)	8mo	$199,000	$153	59
2525 Flamingo Cir	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,330 (+1%)	6mo	$140,000	$105	58
1404 Nightingale Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,457 (+10%)	3mo	$250,000	$172	54
4206 N 48th Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,337 (+1%)	9mo	$247,990	$185	51
2137 Mynah Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,499 (+14%)	10mo	$239,000	$159	50
5901 N 23rd Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,478 (+12%)	8mo	$160,000	$108	49
5310 N 24th Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,502 (+14%)	2mo	$200,000	$133	42
2601 Falcon Ave	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,178 (-11%)	1mo	$199,000	$169	40
2625 Mynah Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (+14%)	8mo	$195,000	$129	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-22,910
• Equity at exit: $27,137

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-13,470
• Equity at exit: $15,736

Cash invested: $50,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78504

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 898
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,796 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,286/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,651

Max offer price $182,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $218	-5% $166	+0% $115	+5% $63	+10% $12
Rent	-10% $-27	-5% $44	+0% $115	+5% $186	+10% $256
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $161	base $115	+0.5pp $67	+1.0pp $19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,500
• Closing costs: $5,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6313 N 20th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,550	$1.17	16d	1	0.08mi
5901 N 22nd St McAllen, TX	3.0	1.5	1075	$1,250	$1.16	45d	1	0.29mi
1612 Cardinal Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1793	$1,750	$0.98	45d	1	0.47mi
1216 Quail Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,700	$0.92	45d	1	0.61mi
2625 Mynah Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,150	$1.43	45d	1	0.71mi
5904 N 28th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,600	$1.28	45d	1	0.77mi
2627 Falcon Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.80mi
7504 N 21st St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,800	$1.03	16d	1	0.89mi
3021 Hummingbird Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,500	$1.09	25d	1	0.95mi
6613 N 5th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,650	$1.34	25d	1	0.98mi
6617 N 5th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,650	$1.12	45d	1	0.98mi
701 Sandpiper Ave Unit 1 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,175	$1.01	25d	1	1.00mi
6821 N 5th St McAllen, TX	3.0	3.0	1572	$2,000	$1.27	45d	1	1.01mi
3100 Falcon Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1381	$1,600	$1.16	45d	1	1.01mi
2717 Umbrellabird Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1521	$1,695	$1.11	45d	1	1.01mi
6820 N 5th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,650	$1.25	45d	1	1.03mi
2629 Warbler Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$2,100	$1.48	45d	1	1.04mi
3212 Oriole Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1543	$1,850	$1.20	21d	1	1.06mi
5700 N 3rd St Unit 3 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1026	$1,200	$1.17	46d	1	1.21mi
5408 N 35th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,550	$1.02	45d	1	1.24mi
3509 Robin Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$1,795	$0.98	16d	1	1.25mi
4405 N 27th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,695	$1.23	46d	1	1.27mi
8101 N 23rd St Unit 29 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	45d	1	1.27mi
8101 N 23rd St Unit 27 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	25d	1	1.27mi
5705 N 36th St Unit 2 McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,250	$1.20	45d	1	1.28mi
3413 Yucca Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,500	$1.21	45d	1	1.30mi
204 Canary Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1705	$2,800	$1.64	45d	1	1.32mi
5511 N 36th Ln McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1713	$2,000	$1.17	45d	1	1.35mi
5407 N 36th Ln McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1310	$2,000	$1.53	45d	1	1.37mi
3601 Warbler Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,500	$0.96	25d	1	1.44mi
5716 N 38th St McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1026	$1,400	$1.36	45d	1	1.44mi
2613 Fairmont Ave McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$2,000	$1.15	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $182,000 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,000 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,000 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,000 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,000 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $182,000 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $182,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $182,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $182,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $182,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $182,000 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $182,000 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $182,000 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,000 Active 179 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,000 Active 178 DOM
17. 2026-01-06
    price $182,000 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Charming 2 story home features 3 bedrooms 2 baths, in a quiet neighborhood, with lots of amenities close by. Nice open floor plan between livingroom and kitchen for all your holiday family gatherings, home does offer split floor plan with 2 bedrooms 1 bath upstairs and primary bedroom with extra room that can be used as an office downstairs, huge backyard for your with family BBQs, perfect for a growing family or anyone craving space and serenity, with lots of comfort, convenience for everyday living!--don't miss your chance to tour and make this home your own!

18. 2025-12-03
    listed $187,000 Active 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Charming 2 story home features 3 bedrooms 2 baths, in a quiet neighborhood, with lots of amenities close by. Nice open floor plan between livingroom and kitchen for all your holiday family gatherings, home does offer split floor plan with 2 bedrooms 1 bath upstairs and primary bedroom with extra room that can be used as an office downstairs, huge backyard for your with family BBQs, perfect for a growing family or anyone craving space and serenity, with lots of comfort, convenience for everyday living!--don't miss your chance to tour and make this home your own!

19. 2024-07-16
    listed $210,000 Active
20. 1996-11-02
    soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,286 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,331 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: +$44/yr (+$4/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,195
• − Property taxes: −$3,286
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,724
• − Management: −$1,724
• − Depreciation: −$5,295
• Taxable loss: −$1,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$380
• After-tax cash flow: $1,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcallen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829670
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,805
• Composite: 33.16/100
• National rank: #5551
• State rank: #440 of 826 in TX

Livability — McAllen

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McAllen, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,094
• Household income: $81,905
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1468.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 39% White 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.87%
• Current HPI: 194.1764
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+333.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $182,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $187,000 RGVMLS
• 2024-07-16 Listed $210,000 MCALLENMLS
• 1996-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,286 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.