611 Chapel Rd · Keo, AR 72083

$119,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1975 0.52 ac lot Est $138k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Very nice rural brick home on a paved road located outside of Keo. The inside has been recently updated throughout. New kitchen appliances. New LVP flooring. Carport with storage room. HVAC Large trees for shade in the evening. Huge back yard. Rural water. Welcome to Country Living.

Key facts

• Huge back yard
• New lvp flooring
• 0.52 acre lot

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• CARPORT WITH STORAGE ROOM
• HUGE BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approx. 150 x 150 (about 0.52 acre)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 1 car
• Utilities: Septic system; Public water; Electric service (municipal/Entergy)
• Home design: Single-family property; Approx. 1,152 square feet; Entry level not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Composition roof; Paved road access; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Refrigerator included
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#504 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• England School District (town): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #170 of 238 in AR (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: England Elementary School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #278 of 454 statewide, top 64%, 360 students, 100% FRL); England High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #213 of 292 statewide, top 77%, 288 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 66% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($826 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,641 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.98%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,240
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
351 Pine St	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,170 (+2%)	24mo	$140,000	$120	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $21,409
• Equity at exit: $53,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $66,259
• Equity at exit: $82,808

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72083

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $471/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $906

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $145	+0% $111	+5% $77	+10% $43
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $70	+0% $111	+5% $152	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $141	base $111	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,500 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,500 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,500 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,500 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,500 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,500 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $119,500 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $471 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$24/mo · 62.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$471
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable loss: −$691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$166
• After-tax cash flow: $1,497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: England School District
• NCES district ID: 0505850
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,807
• Composite: 22.87/100
• National rank: #8006
• State rank: #170 of 238 in AR

Livability — Keo

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #504
• US rank: #26028

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keo, AR
• City population: 300
• Population (ZIP): 300

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 39% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 10% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $119,500 CARMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $471 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.