16973 River Park Dr · Covington, LA 70435

$274,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2017 7,200 sqft lot $136/sqft · at area comps Est $284k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2017

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.9% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 365 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 10860% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,390 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,687
• List price: $274,000
• Delta: -3.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16761 Highland Heights Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-6%)	5mo	$300,000	$158	69
75420 Victoria Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,825 (-9%)	5mo	$278,190	$152	64
75348 Sydney Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,232 (+11%)	5mo	$300,805	$135	63
75405 Victoria Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,825 (-9%)	4mo	$277,514	$152	63
75448 Victoria Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,232 (+11%)	8mo	$299,590	$134	62
75441 Victoria Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,232 (+11%)	9mo	$301,795	$135	60
75449 Victoria Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,232 (+11%)	10mo	$300,275	$135	60
75537 Joyce Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-12%)	11mo	$274,735	$154	59
75440 Victoria Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (-12%)	9mo	$274,290	$154	59
75340 Sydney Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,232 (+11%)	9mo	$298,760	$134	58
75409 Victoria Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,718 (-15%)	10mo	$283,120	$165	49
16082 Lake Ramsey Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,785 (-11%)	0mo	$250,000	$140	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-30,441
• Equity at exit: $40,854

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-8,659
• Equity at exit: $23,691

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70435

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,504 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,138/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,226

Max offer price $274,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16973 River Park Dr Covington, LA	4.0	2.0	2014	$2,500	$1.24	19d	1	0.03mi
75736 Rickelin Dr Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1781	$2,095	$1.18	43d	1	0.16mi
75533 Joyce Dr Covington, LA	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,150	$1.18	43d	1	0.18mi
75049 Crestview Hills Loop Covington, LA	4.0	2.0	2365	$2,349	$0.99	16d	1	0.44mi
724 Simpson Way Covington, LA	3.0	3.5	2262	$2,149	$0.95	3d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $274,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $274,000 Active 376 DOM
8. 2026-03-17
   listed $2,500
9. 2025-12-10
   price $274,000 560-char remark

   Show marketing remark (560 chars)

   NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

10. 2025-12-10
    price $274,000 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

11. 2025-10-29
    price $277,900 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

12. 2025-10-29
    price $277,900 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

13. 2025-08-20
    price $278,000 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

14. 2025-08-20
    price $278,000 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

15. 2025-06-15
    price $280,000 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

16. 2025-06-15
    price $280,000 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

17. 2025-05-21
    listed $287,000 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

18. 2025-05-21
    listed $287,000 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (560 chars)

    NEW PRICE! MOVE IN READY! This beautifully built home by DR Horton in 2017 offers a spacious and modern living experience. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this residence provides ample space for individuals, family and/or guests. The open floor plan combines comfort and functionality, perfect for entertaining or relaxing at home. Located in a desirable neighborhood, this property combines quality craftsmanship with convenient amenities. Don't miss the opportunity to make this lovely house your new home! Seller is also offering 1 year Home Warranty.

19. 2017-06-14
    listed $204,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,138 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,138 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$2,138
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,404
• − Management: −$2,404
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$1,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$465
• After-tax cash flow: $3,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Tammany Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201650
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -26.00%
• Median HH income: $61,752
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3098
• State rank: #11 of 98 in LA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Tammany Parish · 228,296 people
• City population: 64,351
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• Population (ZIP): 22,475
• Household income: $80,926
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (St. Tammany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,725 people
• By 2030: 304,175 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 336,203 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 364,590 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 433,362 · +51.1%
• By 2100: 470,333 · +64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Tammany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.8) · D 27.3% · R 71.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -43.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.8 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.03%
• Current HPI: 202.0458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New Orleans-Metairie, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-98.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed for Rent $2,500 RAAMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $274,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-12-10 Price Changed $274,000 GSREIN
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $277,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $277,900 GSREIN
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $278,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $278,000 GSREIN
• 2025-06-15 Price Changed $280,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-06-15 Price Changed $280,000 GSREIN
• 2025-05-21 Listed $287,000 GSREIN
• 2025-05-21 Listed $287,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2017-06-14 Listed $204,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,138 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.