4830 E San Mateo St · Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85650

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Land public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1974 0.30 ac lot $98/sqft · 22% below area Est $192k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this amazing Golden Meadows property that features two separate homes! Parcels 107-69-029-K (4830 E San Mateo St) and 107-69-029-L (4645 S San Pedro Ave) are both included in the sale. The front lot features a 1,539 sq ft 3 bed/2 bath home with tasteful updates throughout, ample natural light, along with a separate office/den and a bonus room. Out back, you'll find a 1,000 sq ft 2 bed/1 bath home that can be used as a separate living space or as an income property. Enjoy tranquil living in this quiet Sierra Vista neighborhood, with stunning views of the Huachuca Mountains. Welcome home! *Please note, 4830 E San Mateo was built in 1974, so it is not eligible for traditional financing. The seller may carry with a minimum 20% down payment.*

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Income property
• Separate office den

Tags

• SEPARATE OFFICE DEN
• BONUS ROOM
• SEPARATE LIVING SPACE
• INCOME PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $785 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.5% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.45%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,538
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -21.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $25,685
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $86,599
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85650

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $789/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5333 S Santa Claus Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,900	$1.09	43d	1	0.92mi
3618 E Shawnee Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	2213	$2,000	$0.90	43d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $149,900 Pending 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    status Pending 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Don't miss this amazing Golden Meadows property that features two separate homes! Parcels 107-69-029-K (4830 E San Mateo St) and 107-69-029-L (4645 S San Pedro Ave) are both included in the sale. The front lot features a 1,539 sq ft 3 bed/2 bath home with tasteful updates throughout, ample natural light, along with a separate office/den and a bonus room. Out back, you'll find a 1,000 sq ft 2 bed/1 bath home that can be used as a separate living space or as an income property. Enjoy tranquil living in this quiet Sierra Vista neighborhood, with stunning views of the Huachuca Mountains. Welcome home! *Please note, 4830 E San Mateo was built in 1974, so it is not eligible for traditional financing. The seller may carry with a minimum 20% down payment.*

17. 2026-04-24
    price $149,900 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Don't miss this amazing Golden Meadows property that features two separate homes! Parcels 107-69-029-K (4830 E San Mateo St) and 107-69-029-L (4645 S San Pedro Ave) are both included in the sale. The front lot features a 1,539 sq ft 3 bed/2 bath home with tasteful updates throughout, ample natural light, along with a separate office/den and a bonus room. Out back, you'll find a 1,000 sq ft 2 bed/1 bath home that can be used as a separate living space or as an income property. Enjoy tranquil living in this quiet Sierra Vista neighborhood, with stunning views of the Huachuca Mountains. Welcome home! *Please note, 4830 E San Mateo was built in 1974, so it is not eligible for traditional financing. The seller may carry with a minimum 20% down payment.*

18. 2026-03-19
    status Active 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Don't miss this amazing Golden Meadows property that features two separate homes! Parcels 107-69-029-K (4830 E San Mateo St) and 107-69-029-L (4645 S San Pedro Ave) are both included in the sale. The front lot features a 1,539 sq ft 3 bed/2 bath home with tasteful updates throughout, ample natural light, along with a separate office/den and a bonus room. Out back, you'll find a 1,000 sq ft 2 bed/1 bath home that can be used as a separate living space or as an income property. Enjoy tranquil living in this quiet Sierra Vista neighborhood, with stunning views of the Huachuca Mountains. Welcome home! *Please note, 4830 E San Mateo was built in 1974, so it is not eligible for traditional financing. The seller may carry with a minimum 20% down payment.*

19. 2026-03-07
    status Pending 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Don't miss this amazing Golden Meadows property that features two separate homes! Parcels 107-69-029-K (4830 E San Mateo St) and 107-69-029-L (4645 S San Pedro Ave) are both included in the sale. The front lot features a 1,539 sq ft 3 bed/2 bath home with tasteful updates throughout, ample natural light, along with a separate office/den and a bonus room. Out back, you'll find a 1,000 sq ft 2 bed/1 bath home that can be used as a separate living space or as an income property. Enjoy tranquil living in this quiet Sierra Vista neighborhood, with stunning views of the Huachuca Mountains. Welcome home! *Please note, 4830 E San Mateo was built in 1974, so it is not eligible for traditional financing. The seller may carry with a minimum 20% down payment.*

20. 2026-02-13
    price $159,900 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Don't miss this amazing Golden Meadows property that features two separate homes! Parcels 107-69-029-K (4830 E San Mateo St) and 107-69-029-L (4645 S San Pedro Ave) are both included in the sale. The front lot features a 1,539 sq ft 3 bed/2 bath home with tasteful updates throughout, ample natural light, along with a separate office/den and a bonus room. Out back, you'll find a 1,000 sq ft 2 bed/1 bath home that can be used as a separate living space or as an income property. Enjoy tranquil living in this quiet Sierra Vista neighborhood, with stunning views of the Huachuca Mountains. Welcome home! *Please note, 4830 E San Mateo was built in 1974, so it is not eligible for traditional financing. The seller may carry with a minimum 20% down payment.*

21. 2026-01-14
    listed $169,900 Active 758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (758 chars)

    Don't miss this amazing Golden Meadows property that features two separate homes! Parcels 107-69-029-K (4830 E San Mateo St) and 107-69-029-L (4645 S San Pedro Ave) are both included in the sale. The front lot features a 1,539 sq ft 3 bed/2 bath home with tasteful updates throughout, ample natural light, along with a separate office/den and a bonus room. Out back, you'll find a 1,000 sq ft 2 bed/1 bath home that can be used as a separate living space or as an income property. Enjoy tranquil living in this quiet Sierra Vista neighborhood, with stunning views of the Huachuca Mountains. Welcome home! *Please note, 4830 E San Mateo was built in 1974, so it is not eligible for traditional financing. The seller may carry with a minimum 20% down payment.*

22. 2025-12-10
    status Pending
23. 2025-12-09
    historical
24. 2025-12-04
    status Active
25. 2025-11-21
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
26. 2025-10-23
    price $169,900
27. 2025-10-02
    price $179,900
28. 2025-08-22
    price $189,900
29. 2025-08-01
    status Active
30. 2025-07-19
    status Pending
31. 2025-06-27
    price $199,900
32. 2025-06-20
    price $209,900
33. 2025-05-28
    listed $219,900 Active
34. 2024-04-13
    status Pending
35. 2024-04-13
    historical
36. 2024-04-04
    price $139,900
37. 2024-02-17
    price $149,900
38. 2023-11-17
    status Active
39. 2023-11-17
    price $169,900
40. 2023-09-13
    historical
41. 2023-09-08
    price $179,900
42. 2023-08-25
    price $189,900
43. 2023-08-11
    listed $199,900 Active
44. 2017-05-05
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $789 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 25.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$789
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $7,390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,774
• After-tax cash flow: $7,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #15230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 14,154
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,876
• Household income: $91,654
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 137.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+49.9% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $159,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-07-19 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $199,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $209,900 ARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Listed $219,900 ARMLS
• 2024-04-13 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-04-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $139,900 ARMLS
• 2024-02-17 Price Changed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Price Changed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2023-09-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $179,900 ARMLS
• 2023-08-25 Price Changed $189,900 ARMLS
• 2023-08-11 Listed $199,900 ARMLS
• 2017-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $789 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.