2026 18th St · Mitchell, NE 69357

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1918 7,000 sqft lot Est $97k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1918

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Wood siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($852 rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#93 in NE, #3,761 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mitchell Public Schools (rural): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #36 of 111 in NE (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Scotts Bluff County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scotts Bluff County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,720
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1439 16th Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0	744 (0%)	9mo	$112,000	$151	74
1538 17th St	0.33mi	2/1.0	846 (+14%)	2mo	$110,000	$130	60
2009 13th St	0.38mi	2/1.0	640 (-14%)	14mo	$37,000	$58	47
1403 14th St	0.53mi	2/1.0	840 (+13%)	11mo	$130,000	$155	45
1415 14th Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0	832 (+12%)	15mo	$102,000	$123	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-4,758
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $7,406
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 69357

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $603/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $166	+0% $142	+5% $118	+10% $94
Rent	-10% $75	-5% $108	+0% $142	+5% $176	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $164	base $142	+0.5pp $120	+1.0pp $97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $85,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   listed $85,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $603 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,470 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$867/yr (+$72/mo · 143.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$603
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$818
• − Management: −$818
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $329
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$79
• After-tax cash flow: $1,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mitchell Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3173890
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,186
• Composite: 47.28/100
• National rank: #2306
• State rank: #36 of 111 in NE

Livability — Mitchell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #3761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mitchell, NE
• Population (ZIP): 3,563

Population outlook (Scotts Bluff County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,740 people
• By 2030: 35,229 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 34,160 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 33,656 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 35,257 · -1.4%
• By 2100: 39,158 · +9.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scotts Bluff

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.6% · R 73.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+48.9 2012: R+37.7 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.91%
• Current HPI: 250.473
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+466.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $85,000 WNBOR
• 2022-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-31 Sold (MLS) $63,000 WNBOR
• 2022-03-04 Listed $79,900 WNBOR
• 2018-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2018-11-01 Sold (MLS) $47,500 WNBOR
• 2018-08-21 Listed $49,900 WNBOR
• 2007-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $603 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.