1012 Joe Bailey St · Royse City, TX 75189

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · Land · 198 Days on market

Built 2024 7,449 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your Brand-New Home outside of HOA awaits! Come check out this stunning brand-new home in Royse City that is outside of HOA, offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and very close to the Highway. This is the perfect home for a First Time Home Buyer. Make your appointment to see this home today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Brand-new home
• 7,449 sq ft lot

Tags

• BRAND-NEW HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($808/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Royse City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W R (Bill) Fort El (math 51% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 614 students, 36% FRL); Ouida Baley Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 934 students, 43% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1301 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,054 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-46,854
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-60,730
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1301
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,467/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,125

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $145	+0% $67	+5% $-10	+10% $-88
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-20	+0% $67	+5% $155	+10% $242
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $137	base $67	+0.5pp $-4	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1939 Hellams Ln Unit 1 Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1711	$1,995	$1.17	20d	1	0.19mi
1931 Hellams Ln Unit 1 Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1711	$1,995	$1.17	20d	1	0.19mi
1947 Hellams Ln Unit 1 Royse City, TX	3.0	2.5	1850	$2,250	$1.22	7d	1	0.19mi
1332 Pierce St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2118	$2,350	$1.11	45d	1	0.35mi
315 College St Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,850	$1.48	6d	1	0.39mi
2044 Hearn Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2060	$2,200	$1.07	5d	1	0.48mi
552 Firethorn Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,350	$1.28	1d	1	0.55mi
525 Redbud Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	2147	$2,395	$1.12	45d	1	0.63mi
513 Redbud Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,050	$1.12	45d	1	0.67mi
4023 Anglers Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.5	2122	$2,900	$1.37	7d	1	0.71mi
207 Gardenia Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,195	$1.20	26d	1	0.72mi
1023 Lakes Dr Royse City, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1194	$1,749	$1.46	3d	1	0.73mi
430 Oleander Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	2039	$2,350	$1.15	45d	1	0.73mi
426 Oleander Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	2126	$2,495	$1.17	26d	1	0.75mi
7015 Hopper Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,300	$1.05	45d	1	0.78mi
209 E Gail Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	1.5	1224	$1,850	$1.51	1d	1	0.87mi
3178 Wind Knot Way Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,150	$1.20	17d	1	0.88mi
2031 Roaring Fork Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1861	$2,495	$1.34	6d	1	0.97mi
712 Preston Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1965	$1,895	$0.96	5d	1	1.04mi
525 Janette Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,095	$1.02	16d	1	1.06mi
903 Live Oak St Royse City, TX	2.0	1.5	1372	$1,800	$1.31	45d	1	1.06mi
913 Live Oak St Unit B Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,600	$1.43	22d	1	1.09mi
2701 Redwood St Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,100	$1.16	7d	1	1.12mi
2704 Redwood St Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	24d	1	1.12mi
317 Fire Rock Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,995	$1.23	1d	1	1.14mi
524 Timberhaven Trl Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1693	$1,900	$1.12	26d	1	1.18mi
1017 N Houston St Royse City, TX	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,725	$1.19	45d	1	1.21mi
220 Fire Rock Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	1.23mi
609 Rosemary Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,901	$1.08	14d	1	1.26mi
609 Rosemary Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1759	$1,835	$1.04	7d	1	1.26mi
721 Oak Grove Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,805	$1.52	1d	1	1.28mi
2909 Marsha Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,900	$1.70	4d	1	1.28mi
725 Orchid Blvd Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,795	$1.15	45d	1	1.31mi
225 Cookston Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1651	$1,825	$1.11	16d	1	1.32mi
225 Cookston Ln Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1651	$1,825	$1.11	26d	1	1.32mi
917 Orchid Blvd Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,895	$1.16	45d	1	1.35mi
320 Cookston Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	2213	$2,045	$0.92	1d	1	1.36mi
1021 Peach St Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,200	$0.78	45d	1	1.36mi
821 Loganwood Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1291	$1,725	$1.34	26d	1	1.36mi
3108 Overstreet Ln Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,899	$1.13	4d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $275,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $275,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2025-12-06
   price $275,000 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Your Brand-New Home outside of HOA awaits! Come check out this stunning brand-new home in Royse City that is outside of HOA, offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and very close to the Highway. This is the perfect home for a First Time Home Buyer. Make your appointment to see this home today!

8. 2025-11-21
   listed $299,900 Active 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Your Brand-New Home outside of HOA awaits! Come check out this stunning brand-new home in Royse City that is outside of HOA, offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan and very close to the Highway. This is the perfect home for a First Time Home Buyer. Make your appointment to see this home today!

9. 2025-11-08
   historical
10. 2025-10-03
    price $299,901
11. 2025-09-18
    price $299,900
12. 2025-09-05
    price $325,000
13. 2025-08-23
    listed $345,000 Active
14. 2025-06-30
    historical
15. 2025-05-23
    price $344,999
16. 2025-05-13
    price $345,000
17. 2025-05-12
    price $344,999
18. 2024-12-18
    listed $345,000 Active
19. 2022-03-07
    soldstatus
20. 2021-06-17
    soldstatus
21. 2021-03-01
    historical
22. 2021-02-04
    status Active
23. 2021-01-28
    historical Active Option Contract
24. 2021-01-11
    price $40,000
25. 2020-12-02
    listed $45,000 Active
26. 2020-07-20
    soldstatus
27. 2020-07-20
    soldstatus
28. 2020-07-16
    soldstatus
29. 1975-11-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,467 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,565/yr (+$297/mo · 243.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,467
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$951
• After-tax cash flow: $1,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royse City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838220
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $73,810
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4197
• State rank: #266 of 826 in TX

Livability — Royse City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #4292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Royse City, TX
• County: Rockwall County · 132,930 people
• City population: 48,739
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 569.0

Population outlook (Rockwall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,396 people
• By 2030: 132,209 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 159,538 · +34.7%
• By 2050: 185,299 · +56.5%
• By 2075: 243,489 · +105.7%
• By 2100: 277,814 · +134.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockwall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.3pp toward D · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+511.1% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $299,901 NTREIS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $345,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $344,999 NTREIS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $345,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $344,999 NTREIS
• 2024-12-18 Listed $345,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-03-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-02-04 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2021-01-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-01-11 Price Changed $40,000 NTREIS
• 2020-12-02 Listed $45,000 NTREIS
• 2020-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1975-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,467 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.