15 Stetson Crk · Big Bear Lake, CA 92305

$225,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Other public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1935 1,161 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely Mountain Cabin for all your Winter and Summer Fun!! Cabin is Secluded. There are approximately 26 Cabin in this Community. Features One Bedroom, One Bath and Loft. Open Kitchen and Family Room.

Key facts

• 1,161 sq ft lot
• Built 1935
• Listed 56 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $218k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.49%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $57,578
• Equity at exit: $106,996

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $163,156
• Equity at exit: $169,575

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92305

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,562/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,777

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $521	-5% $457	+0% $393	+5% $330	+10% $266
Rent	-10% $214	-5% $304	+0% $393	+5% $483	+10% $573
Rate	-1.0pp $507	-0.5pp $451	base $393	+0.5pp $335	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $225,000 Active 201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (201 chars)

    Lovely Mountain Cabin for all your Winter and Summer Fun!! Cabin is Secluded. There are approximately 26 Cabin in this Community. Features One Bedroom, One Bath and Loft. Open Kitchen and Family Room.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$148/yr (+$12/mo · 9.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 14 d/yr ≥81°F today · 37 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,562
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$263
• After-tax cash flow: $4,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 371

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Iranian 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 21%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 307.1726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $225,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,562 · +283.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.