1509 Swallow Dr · Brentwood, MO 63144

$189,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 934 sqft · Condo public records · 220 Days on market

Built 1950 $202/sqft · 9% below area Est $207k · 9% under $363/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home in Brentwood Forest! This beautifully updated first-floor end unit offers privacy and modern elegance. Featuring 2 spacious bedrooms and 1 stylish bathroom, this condo shines with fresh neutral paint, beautiful crown molding, and newer flooring. Loads of natural light fill the large living room. Enjoy meals in the dining room with sliding doors leading to a deck (2018) boasting an incredible view of open common grounds. The dining room flows into a chic all-white kitchen with granite countertops, custom cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. The main floor laundry adds convenience, while the updated bathroom dazzles with new tile and vanity. The large primary bedroom offers tranquility with its own deck and scenic views. With a brand new hot water heater, this home is move-in ready. Amenities include a clubhouse, pools, tennis courts, a grand lake with fountains, and walking trails. The perfect place to call home! Location: End Unit, Ground Level.

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• First floor end unit
• Main floor laundry

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR END UNIT
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#6 in MO, #689 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Brentwood (suburban): math 65% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #4 of 324 in MO (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $189k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,537 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,973
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -8.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-45,521
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-65,454
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63144

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,794 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,154/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$363
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,041

Max offer price $154,537

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1736 Redbird Cv Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	43d	1	0.16mi
1607 Redbird Cv Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	946	$2,038	$2.15	1d	1	0.18mi
9071 Wrenwood Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1060	$1,650	$1.56	43d	1	0.21mi
8901 Cardinal Ter Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1004	$1,600	$1.59	10d	1	0.40mi
1469 Bobolink Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	981	$1,700	$1.73	43d	1	0.44mi
1696 E Swan Cir Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	967	$1,600	$1.65	43d	1	0.45mi
1800 S Brentwood Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1164	$2,105	$1.81	1d	19	0.64mi
9006 Madge Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	7d	1	0.97mi
8661 Litzsinger Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	910	$1,765	$1.94	43d	1	1.02mi
2501 Mary Ave Brentwood, MO	1.0	1.5	1100	$1,725	$1.57	7d	1	1.04mi
2806 Hilldale Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,550	$2.31	1d	1	1.18mi
9305 Manchester Rd St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,445	$1.86	2d	12	1.20mi
8056 Davis Dr Unit 80562N Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	840	$1,700	$2.02	43d	1	1.20mi
72 Van Mark Way Brentwood, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,249	$1.60	1d	4	1.21mi
1034 N Rock Hill Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	696	$1,650	$2.37	43d	1	1.24mi
927 N Elm Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	828	$1,800	$2.17	20d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $363 · $4,356/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 202 DOM
14. 2025-11-10
    listed $189,000 Active 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in Brentwood Forest! This beautifully updated first-floor end unit offers privacy and modern elegance. Featuring 2 spacious bedrooms and 1 stylish bathroom, this condo shines with fresh neutral paint, beautiful crown molding, and newer flooring. Loads of natural light fill the large living room. Enjoy meals in the dining room with sliding doors leading to a deck (2018) boasting an incredible view of open common grounds. The dining room flows into a chic all-white kitchen with granite countertops, custom cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. The main floor laundry adds convenience, while the updated bathroom dazzles with new tile and vanity. The large primary bedroom offers tranquility with its own deck and scenic views. With a brand new hot water heater, this home is move-in ready. Amenities include a clubhouse, pools, tennis courts, a grand lake with fountains, and walking trails. The perfect place to call home! Location: End Unit, Ground Level.

15. 2025-03-18
    price $199,900
16. 2025-01-27
    status Active
17. 2025-01-25
    historical
18. 2024-06-21
    listed $209,900 Active
19. 2014-01-28
    soldstatus $124,000
20. 2014-01-24
    soldstatus
21. 2013-05-07
    listed $129,900
22. 2006-10-03
    soldstatus $154,000
23. 2001-05-17
    soldstatus $109,901
24. 1998-04-17
    soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,154 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,154 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,529
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,154
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,722
• − Management: −$1,722
• − HOA: −$4,356
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$5,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,309
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood
• NCES district ID: 2905880
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,522
• Composite: 57.51/100
• National rank: #1069
• State rank: #4 of 324 in MO

Livability — Brentwood

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #689

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brentwood, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 9,505
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 9,505
• Household income: $104,438
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 310.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -411.33%
• Current HPI: 207.0145
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.49%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+119.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Listed $189,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $199,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-25 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-21 Listed $209,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 2014-01-24 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-07 Listed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $109,901 Public Records
• 1998-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,154 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.