32900 Riverside #53 · Lake Elsinore, CA 92530

$216,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition $160/sqft · 39% above area Est $156k · 39% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bed, 2-bath home in desirable Butterfield Village with lake access around the corner, and resort-style amenities. Light-filled open floor plan, oversized primary suite with soaking tub and walk-in shower, indoor laundry, private yard, and covered carport. Convenient location near schools, shopping, and walking trails.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2019
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $216k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $735 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $216k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Elsinore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#510 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities D, commute F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,510 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.54%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,189
• List price: $216,500
• Delta: 38.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32900 Riverside #51	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-1%)	4mo	$239,900	$180	94
32900 Riverside Dr #118	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+1%)	12mo	$227,000	$167	89
32900 Riverside Dr. #55	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-2%)	9mo	$219,000	$166	86
32900 Riverside Dr #72	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+3%)	13mo	$193,000	$139	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,031
• Equity at exit: $32,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $34,091
• Equity at exit: $18,719

Cash invested: $60,620 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92530

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,135
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,058/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $735

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,663

Max offer price $216,500

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,125
• Closing costs: $6,495
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15190 Grand Ave Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	840	$2,135	$2.54	1d	6	0.26mi
15120 Grand Ave Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,775	$3.19	1d	7	0.30mi
33111 Jamieson St Lake Elsinore, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,425	$1.43	16d	1	0.35mi
1121 Monroe St Unit NA Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,575	$2.34	14d	1	0.55mi
583 Le Harve Ave Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1174	$2,750	$2.34	43d	1	0.56mi
15680 Shadow Mountain Ln Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,495	$2.05	43d	1	0.58mi
15195 Lincoln St Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	832	$2,495	$3.00	1d	1	0.80mi
892 Robin Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	2.0	2.0	1315	$2,450	$1.86	1d	1	0.87mi
16523 Joy St Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	24d	1	1.14mi
15047 Amorose St Lake Elsinore, CA	4.0	2.0	1871	$2,990	$1.60	24d	1	1.15mi
16465 Joy St Unit 20 Lake Elsinore, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,850	$1.95	18d	1	1.17mi
30042 Sugarpine St Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1566	$3,790	$2.42	2d	1	1.21mi
15120 Ironwood St Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1391	$3,450	$2.48	1d	1	1.24mi
597 Woodcrest Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5	1600	$2,545	$1.59	1d	1	1.38mi
16524 Badalona St Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,875	$1.87	18d	1	1.40mi
685 Woodcrest Dr Unit A Lake Elsinore, CA	2.0	2.5	1000	$2,200	$2.20	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $216,500 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $216,500 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $216,500 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $216,500 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $216,500 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $216,500 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $221,500 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $221,500 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $221,500 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $221,500 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $221,500 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $221,500 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $221,500 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $221,500 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    listed $221,500 Active 330-char remark

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Charming 3-bed, 2-bath home in desirable Butterfield Village with lake access around the corner, and resort-style amenities. Light-filled open floor plan, oversized primary suite with soaking tub and walk-in shower, indoor laundry, private yard, and covered carport. Convenient location near schools, shopping, and walking trails.

16. 2026-03-31
    historical
17. 2025-10-23
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$587/yr (+$49/mo · 55.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,127
• − Property taxes: −$1,058
• − Insurance: −$1,082
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,489
• − Management: −$2,489
• − Depreciation: −$6,298
• Taxable income: $5,569
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,337
• After-tax cash flow: $7,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Butterfield Village is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both HVAC maintenance — improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Elsinore Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600027
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,829
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4518
• State rank: #210 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Elsinore

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #17250

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elsinore, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 89,823
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,768
• Household income: $86,862
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1690.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 28% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 41% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.66%
• Current HPI: 394.1705
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.76%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $221,500 CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $225,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,058 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.