8530 SW 190th ST · On Top of the World, FL 34481

$155,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Townhouse · 121 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On Top of The World Community , Birmingham Model Townhouse . Freshly painted , Newer Roof 2020 you will love this spacious 2 Bedroom 2 Bath home vinyl flooring . tiled Kitchen , bath and entry . back and front porch , easy access to Walmart , Publix , Lowes by golf cart or car. amenities includes Pool , Golf , restaurant , fitness center , tennis , billiards , archery , bowling , bingo , bridge , water volley ball etc

Key facts

• Back and front porch
• Tiled kitchen
• Newer roof

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• TILED KITCHEN
• BACK AND FRONT PORCH
• AMENITIES INCLUDES POOL
• AMENITIES INCLUDES GOLF
• AMENITIES INCLUDES RESTAURANT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $156k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $137k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 2.9% in On Top of the World — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1152 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,279 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.61%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,758
• Equity at exit: $23,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $47,338
• Equity at exit: $13,488

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1152
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,084 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$195 /mo · $2,340/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,449

Max offer price $155,999

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $610	-5% $556	+0% $502	+5% $448	+10% $394
Rent	-10% $337	-5% $420	+0% $502	+5% $584	+10% $667
Rate	-1.0pp $580	-0.5pp $542	base $502	+0.5pp $461	+1.0pp $420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9106 SW 65th Loop Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1556	$2,400	$1.54	14d	1	0.62mi
7235 SW 91st Ct Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1163	$2,200	$1.89	14d	1	0.97mi
9122 SW 70th Loop Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1443	$2,500	$1.73	22d	1	0.97mi
7274 SW 89th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1467	$2,200	$1.50	14d	1	1.10mi
7978 SW 90th Ter Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,875	$1.53	14d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,999 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,999 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,999 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,999 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,999 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,999 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,999 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,999 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,999 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $155,999 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,999 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,999 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,999 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,999 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-02-17
    listed $159,999 Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    On Top of The World Community , Birmingham Model Townhouse . Freshly painted , Newer Roof 2020 you will love this spacious 2 Bedroom 2 Bath home vinyl flooring . tiled Kitchen , bath and entry . back and front porch , easy access to Walmart , Publix , Lowes by golf cart or car. amenities includes Pool , Golf , restaurant , fitness center , tennis , billiards , archery , bowling , bingo , bridge , water volley ball etc

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$2,340
• − Insurance: −$1,577
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,001
• − Management: −$2,001
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable income: $3,813
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$915
• After-tax cash flow: $5,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Birmingham Model Townhouse is in good condition with a fresh paint job and newer roof. It offers a spacious layout with vinyl flooring and tiled bathrooms. The property is well-maintained and ready for a new owner.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Ceiling fan in living room — Worn-out blades
• Minor Light fixture in living room — Worn-out fixture

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replacing ceiling fan blades and light fixture — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Ceiling fan in living room · Worn-out blades	Minor	$500–3,000
Light fixture in living room · Worn-out fixture	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replacing ceiling fan blades and light fixture — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — On Top of the World

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: On Top of the World, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,668
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $159,999 ForSaleByOwner.com