358 SE Cr 245 · Watertown, FL 32025

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1960 Est $177k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful country home on over an acre of land, close to town. Large screened in veranda on front side of house. Spacious work shed partially closed off and re-done for office space or whatever you desire. Yard furnished with Pecan trees, Pear trees, and Grape Arbor.

Key facts

• 1.15 acres yard
• Mature pecan trees
• Workshop house

Tags

• 1.15 ACRES YARD
• MATURE PECAN TREES
• GRAPE ARBOR
• WORKSHOP HOUSE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Single-story residential home
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Workshop on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.5% in Watertown — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#798 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $199k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,412 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.97%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 SE Tristin Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,151 (+3%)	6mo	$210,000	$182	67
367 SE Tribble St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,103 (-2%)	2mo	$160,000	$145	61
173 SE Jenese Way	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+9%)	0mo	$180,000	$148	59
755 SE Rosewood Cir	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,111 (-1%)	4mo	$165,000	$149	59
741 SE Rosewood Cir	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,193 (+6%)	6mo	$189,000	$158	48
114 SE Tristin Ln	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+10%)	11mo	$206,000	$167	47
734 SE Rosewood Cir	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,017 (-9%)	2mo	$160,000	$157	45
201 SE Rosewood Cir	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,220 (+9%)	7mo	$187,000	$153	41
187 SE Elm Loop	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,189 (+6%)	6mo	$202,500	$170	41
256 SE Pearl Ter	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,256 (+12%)	10mo	$200,000	$159	40
208 SE Elm Loop	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+10%)	7mo	$192,500	$157	40
406 SE Pearl Ter	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (+15%)	9mo	$219,000	$170	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $114,169
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $331,578
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,920/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,629

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $199,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $220,000 Active
18. 2023-04-18
    soldstatus $120,000
19. 2023-03-31
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Beautiful country home on over an acre of land, close to town. Large screened in veranda on front side of house. Spacious work shed partially closed off and re-done for office space or whatever you desire. Yard furnished with Pecan trees, Pear trees, and Grape Arbor.

20. 2023-03-28
    status Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Beautiful country home on over an acre of land, close to town. Large screened in veranda on front side of house. Spacious work shed partially closed off and re-done for office space or whatever you desire. Yard furnished with Pecan trees, Pear trees, and Grape Arbor.

21. 2023-03-07
    listed $140,000 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    Beautiful country home on over an acre of land, close to town. Large screened in veranda on front side of house. Spacious work shed partially closed off and re-done for office space or whatever you desire. Yard furnished with Pecan trees, Pear trees, and Grape Arbor.

22. 2006-10-16
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,920 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,920 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,920
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$545
• After-tax cash flow: $1,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #798
• US rank: #18481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Listed $220,000 NFMLS
• 2023-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-31 Sold (MLS) $120,000 NFMLS
• 2023-03-28 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2023-03-07 Listed $140,000 NFMLS
• 2006-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,920 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.