34229 Aspen Aly · French Valley, CA 92596

$669,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,453 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 2026 5,524 sqft lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

No HOA! Beautiful Bordeaux community brand-new two-story home in French Valley, close to award winning schools, family-friendly parks, and local wineries. The layout features one downstairs bedroom and bathroom, with four additional bedrooms upstairs. Large walk-in closet at primary bedroom. The spacious great room flows into a generous kitchen with a large island, ideal for entertaining. Energy Star certified electric appliances and a high-efficiency water heater enhance efficiency. Personalize this home with the features you love. Photos are a rendering of the model! Can purchase or lese the solar!

Key facts

• Generous kitchen
• Spacious great room
• Two-story home

Tags

• TWO-STORY HOME
• DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• GENEROUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Curbs, street lighting, storm drains, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces; Driveway; Two total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: House; Under construction; Two stories; Entry level: 1; No accessory dwelling unit; No common walls
• Construction: Energy-efficient construction elements (insulation, roofing, electrical/lighting, doors, windows, HVAC, water heater, appliances, thermostat/controllers); Year built source: Builder
• Exterior features: No pool; Has sprinklers; Drip-system sprinklers; Solar panels (energy generation); Water-conserving flow control

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Energy Star appliances; Microwave; Electric range; Electric oven; Energy Star water heater
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom; Two levels (multi-story layout)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Walk-in shower; Bathtub; Quartz counters in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Energy Star heating; Central cooling (Energy Star)
• Interior features: High ceilings (9 feet+); Open floor plan; Front entry; Energy Star doors; Energy Star windows; Granite counters
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room (individual room)

🏗️ New construction. The $669,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $708,917.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $670k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $490k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $429k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $429k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $76k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $71k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$122k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($610k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $428,685 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.14%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $708,917
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32118 Clear Spgs	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,472 (+1%)	1mo	$715,000	$289	67
34826 Mediterra Cir	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,307 (-6%)	6mo	$625,000	$271	56
32219 Orange Blossom Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,500 (+2%)	12mo	$695,000	$278	52
32324 Orange Blossom Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,334 (-5%)	6mo	$700,000	$300	48
32133 Kale Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,184 (-11%)	8mo	$655,000	$300	46
31120 Briar Rose Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,599 (+6%)	10mo	$900,000	$346	44
35041 Painted Rock St	0.67mi	5/3.0	2,719 (+11%)	9mo	$735,000	$270	43
34567 Silky Dogwood Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,641 (+8%)	22mo	$695,000	$263	40
32387 Clear Springs Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,719 (+11%)	9mo	$800,000	$294	34
32331 Clear Springs Dr	0.70mi	5/3.0	2,719 (+11%)	19mo	$835,000	$307	33
34897 Ryanside Ct	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,789 (+14%)	8mo	$680,000	$244	32
32482 Safflower St	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,701 (+10%)	22mo	$760,000	$281	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $277,262
• Equity at exit: $638,649

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $869,881
• Equity at exit: $1,377,270

Cash invested: $198,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,287 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,718
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$886 /mo · $10,634/yr
• Insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$900
• Net cashflow: $-1,513

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,201

Max offer price $490,049

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $177,229
• Closing costs: $21,268
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34580 Sourwood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2800	$3,200	$1.14	43d	1	0.64mi
32689 Cottonwood Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	3157	$4,100	$1.30	43d	1	0.95mi
34715 Ribbon Grass Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2319	$3,800	$1.64	1d	1	1.01mi
32907 Cambury Pl Winchester, CA	5.0	4.0	2641	$3,795	$1.44	1d	1	1.19mi
33014 Marin Fields Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,795	$2.13	43d	1	1.19mi
34065 Helenium St Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	3070	$3,700	$1.21	1d	1	1.21mi
34806 Wind Poppy Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.5	3321	$3,900	$1.17	12d	1	1.24mi
30508 Copper Rose Dr Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.5	3200	$4,100	$1.28	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $669,990 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $669,990 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $669,990 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $669,990 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $669,990 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $669,990 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   pricedays on market $669,990 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-05-18
   status Active
9. 2026-05-18
   price $662,990
10. 2026-02-13
    status Pending Sale
11. 2025-12-02
    listed $687,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,710
• − Property taxes: −$10,634
• − Insurance: −$3,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,115
• − Management: −$4,115
• − Depreciation: −$20,623
• Taxable loss: −$31,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,512
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $662,990 CRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $687,990 CRMLS