4511 Hidden Farm Dr · Plant City, FL 33565

$389,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,453 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,719 sqft lot $9/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 4511 Hidden Farm Drive PLANT CITY FL 33565 priced at 395990, the square foot and stories are 2447, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• 4,719 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty provided; CDD present
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,589; Monthly HOA amount: $9; Total monthly fees: $9; Total annual fees: $108; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $9); Association: Access Management; Association approval required; Community clubhouse; Community fitness center; Community playground; Community pool; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: (no specific security features listed)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; New construction (projected completion Dec 30, 2026); Two levels; Southeast facing; Under construction
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: D.R. Horton; Builder model: Robie MC; Builder license CBC039052; New construction
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 307 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,279/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 152% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $327,926 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-70,370
• Equity at exit: $58,149

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-70,363
• Equity at exit: $33,719

Cash invested: $109,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,850/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,423

Max offer price $373,564

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $21	+0% $-114	+5% $-248	+10% $-383
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-243	+0% $-114	+5% $16	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $-14	base $-114	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,498
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3440 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	24d	1	1.04mi
3827 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,150	$1.14	24d	1	1.07mi
3809 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,800	$0.94	24d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,990 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $389,990 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $394,990 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $394,990 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $394,990 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $394,990 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $394,990 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,990 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,990 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $395,990 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $395,990 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $395,990 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,990 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,990 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,990 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $395,990 Active 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    The property is located at 4511 Hidden Farm Drive PLANT CITY FL 33565 priced at 395990, the square foot and stories are 2447, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

17. 2026-05-05
    listed $395,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$5,850
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,148
• − Management: −$3,148
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$8,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,930
• After-tax cash flow: $568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is under construction and is in excellent condition. It is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting, landscaping, and adding smart home features to enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Energy-efficient windows can reduce energy costs and improve home value.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Energy-efficient windows can reduce energy costs and improve home value. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $395,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-05 Listed $395,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid