10 Glen Hollow Dr Unit C12 · Holtsville, NY 11742

$239,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 550 sqft · Condo · 117 Days on market

Built 1976 ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bright and welcoming ground-level junior 1-bedroom end-unit in the desirable Birchwood Glen community. This lively, move-in ready co-op features an open living area with abundant natural light, practical layout for everyday living, and the privacy advantage of an end unit. The efficient kitchen and nicely sized separate bedroom are perfect for first-time buyers, commuters, or anyone seeking low-maintenance living close to everything. Birchwood Glen is highly sought after for its resort-style amenities — clubhouse, outdoor pool, and community spaces — and for its unbeatable location near the Ronkonkoma LIRR station, major roadways and a wide variety of shopping and dining options

Key facts

• End-unit
• Clubhouse
• Ground-level junior

Tags

• GROUND-LEVEL JUNIOR
• END-UNIT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• EFFICIENT KITCHEN
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $217k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.5% in Holtsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#414 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Tamarac Elementary School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 443 students, 21% FRL); Seneca Middle School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 973 students, 22% FRL); Sachem High School East (math 94% / reading 93%, grade A+, #131 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 2,082 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,490 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.93%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-10,520
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $27,274
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11742

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,091

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Spruce Dr Holbrook, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	864	$2,500	$2.89	1d	23	0.98mi
116 Waverly Ave Unit 8 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	730	$2,895	$3.97	44d	1	1.43mi
116 Waverly Ave Unit 7 Patchogue, NY	1.0	1.0	722	$2,795	$3.87	44d	1	1.43mi
99 Waverly Ave Patchogue, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	928	$2,381	$2.57	1d	9	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-04
   price $239,000
3. 2025-11-19
   listed $249,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,545
• − Management: −$2,545
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable income: $1,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$383
• After-tax cash flow: $4,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holtsville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #7194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holtsville, NY
• City population: 13,194
• Population (ZIP): 13,194

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.81%
• Current HPI: 331.9816
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $239,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-19 Listed $249,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid