101 Lost Creek Trl · Potosi, TX 79602

$273,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,356 sqft lot 2-car garage $152/sqft · 26% below area Est $369k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21259811 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-1 B1- Monroe The Monroe Plan from our Liberty Series combines thoughtful design and everyday functionality, offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-planned living space. This single-story home features a split-bedroom layout for added privacy. At the front of the home, you’ll find three secondary bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room. A versatile flex room near the main living area offers the perfect space for a home office, playroom, or sitting area.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $274k).
• Recommended offer: $258k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.2% in Potosi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#398 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie West Int (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #283 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 459 students, 24% FRL); Wylie West J H (math 62% / reading 58%, grade B, #158 of 1,662 statewide, top 10%, 972 students, 24% FRL); Wylie H S (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 1,467 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 621 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,550 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.24%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,031
• List price: $273,990
• Delta: -25.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
249 Coyote Creek Ct	0.00mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,804 (0%)	1mo	$249,990	$139	90
244 Key Ln Unit D	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,853 (+3%)	4mo	$549,000	$296	58
301 Meadow Ln	1.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,861 (+3%)	16mo	$375,000	$202	42
101 Beechcraft	0.90mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (+2%)	18mo	$372,500	$203	42
117 Gulfstream	1.12mi	4/2.0	2,046 (+13%)	2mo	$475,000	$232	41
427 Meadow Ln	0.93mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-15%)	1mo	$549,900	$358	34
190 Raymonds Way	0.81mi	4/2.0	2,036 (+13%)	11mo	$384,900	$189	34
182 Bluebird Ln	0.93mi	4/2.0	2,111 (+17%)	13mo	$460,000	$218	29
170 Boeing Ln	1.08mi	4/2.0	2,120 (+18%)	21mo	$396,900	$187	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-20,497
• Equity at exit: $40,853

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $60,519
• Equity at exit: $23,690

Cash invested: $76,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 1.2 mo (83%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,990 ($139/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +47.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 621
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,110/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $273,990

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $241	+0% $146	+5% $51	+10% $-43
Rent	-10% $-70	-5% $38	+0% $146	+5% $254	+10% $363
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $216	base $146	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,498
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Bell St Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1925	$3,500	$1.82	76d	1	1.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing sold/managed by builder (special listing condition: Builder)
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA financingNo second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spacesGarage faces front
• Security: No smart home features noted
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNo municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne-storyNew construction (2025) — incomplete
• Construction: Siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationYear built 2025 (new construction - incomplete)
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5-acre lotSubdivision: Waterside at Cedar Creek

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalElectric rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenPantryBuilt-in cabinets
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $273,990 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $273,990 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $273,990 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $273,990 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $273,990 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $273,990 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $273,990 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $273,990 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $273,990 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $273,990 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $273,990 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $273,990 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $273,990 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $273,990 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    status $273,990 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-07-03
    status $273,990 Pending 42 DOM
17. 2026-07-02
    days on market $273,990 Active 42 DOM
18. 2026-07-01
    days on market $273,990 Active 41 DOM
19. 2026-06-30
    days on market $273,990 Active 40 DOM
20. 2026-06-29
    days on market $273,990 Active 39 DOM
21. 2026-06-28
    days on market $273,990 Active 38 DOM
22. 2026-06-28
    days on market $273,990 Active 37 DOM
23. 2026-06-27
    days on market $273,990 Active 36 DOM
24. 2026-06-25
    days on market $273,990 Active 34 DOM
25. 2026-06-23
    pricedays on market $273,990 Active 32 DOM
26. 2026-06-05
    days on market $270,990 Active 31 DOM
27. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,990 Active 29 DOM
28. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,990 Active 28 DOM
29. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,990 Active 27 DOM
30. 2026-05-30
    days on market $270,990 Active 26 DOM
31. 2026-05-04
    listed $270,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$4,110
• − Insurance: −$2,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,631
• − Management: −$2,631
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$2,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$643
• After-tax cash flow: $2,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained features. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 64/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wylie West Int B TX #283/4,322 Nat'l #5,798/41,679 Middle Wylie West J H B TX #158/1,662 Nat'l #1,793/14,009 High Wylie H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Potosi

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #8264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Potosi, TX
• County: Taylor County · 145,270 people
• City population: 26,588
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing sold/managed by builder (special listing condition: Builder)
• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA financingNo second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spacesGarage faces front
• Security: No smart home features noted
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNo municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne-storyNew construction (2025) — incomplete
• Construction: Siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationYear built 2025 (new construction - incomplete)
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5-acre lotSubdivision: Waterside at Cedar Creek

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalElectric rangeMicrowave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenPantryBuilt-in cabinets
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-22 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $273,990 NTREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $270,990 NTREIS