1819 Medina Cir · San Antonio, TX 78264

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Land public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2007 1.19 ac lot $136/sqft · at area comps Est $167k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath modular home situated on approximately 1.15 acres on the south side of San Antonio offers a functional floor plan with spacious living area, open kitchen, and a private primary suite. Ideal for those seeking additional outdoor space with room for expansion, gardening, or recreational use. Conveniently located just 20 miles from downtown San Antonio, with easy access to major highways, shopping, and dining. Approximately 30 miles to SeaWorld and Six Flags Fiesta Texas, and a short 2.5-hour drive to Corpus Christi and the Texas Gulf Coast. Great opportunity for buyers looking for a balance of country-style living with close proximity to city amenities.

Key facts

• Outdoor space
• 1.19 acre lot
• Built 2007

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 329 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.55%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,104
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -1.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $39,526
• Equity at exit: $83,128

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $115,253
• Equity at exit: $135,543

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,754/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,578

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22785 Petwood Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,800	$1.36	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-04-08
    listed $165,000 New 687-char remark

    Show marketing remark (687 chars)

    This 3-bedroom, 2-bath modular home situated on approximately 1.15 acres on the south side of San Antonio offers a functional floor plan with spacious living area, open kitchen, and a private primary suite. Ideal for those seeking additional outdoor space with room for expansion, gardening, or recreational use. Conveniently located just 20 miles from downtown San Antonio, with easy access to major highways, shopping, and dining. Approximately 30 miles to SeaWorld and Six Flags Fiesta Texas, and a short 2.5-hour drive to Corpus Christi and the Texas Gulf Coast. Great opportunity for buyers looking for a balance of country-style living with close proximity to city amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,754 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,754 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,754
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$477
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$115
• After-tax cash flow: $2,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $165,000 LERA

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,754 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.