806 Hess Ave · Erie, PA 16503

$89,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1913 4,082 sqft lot $57/sqft · 26% above area Est $71k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 2 unit . First floor remodeled in 2017 (could be for owner occupied) has new carpeting, repainted walls, new cabinets & counter tops, new doors, remodeled bath, newer windows both floors- 2006. Separate gas and electric. rewired in 2002

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Fenced yard
• 4,082 sq ft lot

Tags

• INCOME PRODUCING DUPLEX
• FENCED YARD
• OFF STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Basement unit currently rents for $850; Second unit currently rents for $750

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Multi-family residential property; Two-story building
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms in one unit; Two bedrooms in second unit
• Bathrooms: One bathroom in each unit
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Basement tenant use

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive. Per door: $339/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $90k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.31%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $71,239
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 26.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1005 Hess Ave	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,408 (-11%)	10mo	$46,000	$33	68
1101 Pennsylvania Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,544 (-2%)	20mo	$48,000	$31	67
1404 E Lake Rd	0.29mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (+4%)	14mo	$75,000	$46	64
820 Wayne St	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,584 (0%)	13mo	$42,500	$27	62
941 E 11th St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-4%)	9mo	$58,000	$38	62
1349 E 8th St	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+14%)	19mo	$73,000	$41	56
1015 E 5th St	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,696 (+7%)	22mo	$45,000	$27	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $67,712
• Equity at exit: $54,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.59×
• Total profit: $165,834
• Equity at exit: $98,426

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $794

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 54%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,652
Total (2 units)			$1,652

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
622 E 4th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.85mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	44d	1	1.18mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $89,900 Active 1016-char remark
2. 2018-04-16
   soldstatus $30,000 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   Nice 2 unit . First floor remodeled in 2017 (could be for owner occupied) has new carpeting, repainted walls, new cabinets & counter tops, new doors, remodeled bath, newer windows both floors- 2006. Separate gas and electric. rewired in 2002

3. 2018-02-24
   listed $39,900 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   Nice 2 unit . First floor remodeled in 2017 (could be for owner occupied) has new carpeting, repainted walls, new cabinets & counter tops, new doors, remodeled bath, newer windows both floors- 2006. Separate gas and electric. rewired in 2002

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,422 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $7,130
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,711
• After-tax cash flow: $6,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+125.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $89,900 GEBOR
• 2018-04-16 Sold (MLS) $30,000 GEBOR
• 2018-02-24 Listed $39,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,422 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.